On Wednesday, Benchmark adjusted the price target for H World Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:HTHT) to $48, down from the previous $53, while retaining a Buy rating on the stock.
The revision follows H World Group's third-quarter earnings report, which revealed both revenue and adjusted EBITDA figures falling short of expectations. This shortfall was largely attributed to a steeper year-over-year decline in Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) of 8.1%, compared to the anticipated 4.3%.
The company's quarterly performance was impacted by a faster-than-expected rate of owned and leased (O/L) hotel closures. With a challenging comparison to the prior year, RevPAR headwinds are expected to persist into the fourth quarter, leading to a downward adjustment in projections for that period.
Looking ahead to 2025, the analyst remains positive about H World Group's prospects, citing a strong pipeline of new store openings. Nevertheless, a higher rate of O/L hotel closures is anticipated as the company continues to implement its asset-light, high-quality growth strategy. This strategic shift has prompted a more conservative outlook on RevPAR growth for the 2025 fiscal year, now set at 1% year-over-year, down from the previously estimated 2%.
In light of these factors, Benchmark has revised its financial projections for H World Group in the 2025 fiscal year. Revenue growth is now expected to be at 5% year-over-year, a decrease from the earlier forecast of 7%. Adjusted EBITDA growth has also been adjusted to 14% year-over-year compared to the previous expectation of 15%. These revised projections have informed the new price target of $48 for H World Group's shares.
In other recent news, Edgewood Group reported a decline in its Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) by 8.1% year-over-year during its third-quarter earnings call for 2024. Despite this, the company exhibited resilience with a healthy occupancy rate of 84.9% and continued its expansion by opening 774 new hotels. Financial highlights include an 11% year-over-year increase in hotel turnover to RMB 26.1 billion and a slight 2.4% growth in hotel revenue to RMB 6.46 billion. However, the company's adjusted EBITDA experienced a 9.5% drop to RMB 2.1 billion.
These recent developments also indicate a shift in the company's business strategy. Edgewood Group's focus on direct sales and membership growth on its B2B platform resulted in a 41% increase, with the membership base nearing 260 million. Despite the current challenges, the company remains optimistic about the long-term potential of China's hospitality market, projecting stabilization and growth in RevPAR from 2025.
Analysts' notes suggest that while Edgewood Group experienced a significant decrease in Q3 RevPAR and a drop in adjusted EBITDA, the company's aggressive expansion strategy and healthy occupancy rate indicate a strong position in the market.
InvestingPro Insights
Despite the recent challenges highlighted in the article, InvestingPro data reveals some positive aspects of H World Group's financial performance. The company's revenue growth stands at an impressive 30.82% over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, with a robust EBITDA growth of 83.17% during the same period. These figures suggest that H World Group has been experiencing significant expansion, aligning with the analyst's positive outlook for 2025.
InvestingPro Tips indicate that H World Group has a perfect Piotroski Score of 9, which is a strong indicator of the company's financial strength and potential for future growth. Additionally, management has been aggressively buying back shares, potentially signaling confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips for H World Group, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.
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