On Wednesday, Guggenheim adjusted its financial outlook for shares of Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:PFE), reducing the price target to $33.00 from the previous $35.00, but the firm continues to recommend a Buy rating for the pharmaceutical giant's stock. The revision comes in anticipation of Pfizer releasing its initial fiscal year 2025 guidance on December 17, before market opening.
The adjustment by Guggenheim follows a review of the latest prescription data for Pfizer's key products in the first two months of the fourth quarter of 2024.
The firm has updated its company model post discussions with Pfizer's Investor Relations and has lowered sales estimates for significant products including Comirnaty, Paxlovid, and Abrysvo. Additionally, Guggenheim has reduced its operating expense projections, particularly for the later years in their model.
Guggenheim's model changes have led to a decrease in their forecast for Pfizer's earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal year 2024 to $2.99, down from $3.03, and for fiscal year 2025 to $2.88, a significant drop from the previously predicted $3.22. The firm attributes approximately a 30 cent EPS headwind in fiscal year 2025 to certain benefits that will not recur, having positively impacted the company's results in fiscal year 2024.
The updated discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis by Guggenheim has resulted in the new price target of $33. Despite the lowered expectations, Guggenheim suggests that investor expectations for Pfizer's fiscal year 2025 EPS guidance are somewhat below the current $2.90 consensus estimate from FactSet.
Investors are anticipating guidance to fall between $2.55 and $2.70, which could provide Pfizer with an opportunity to surpass and elevate estimates as the year progresses, albeit not to the extent seen in 2024.
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