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Goldman says Trip.com stock still a buy despite cautious Q4 margin outlook

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 11/20/2024, 03:40 AM
TCOM
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On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs adjusted its outlook on Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM), a leading travel service provider. The firm increased the price target to $75.00, up from the previous $66.00, while reiterating a Buy rating on the stock.

The upgrade follows Trip.com's recent financial performance, which saw the company's earnings rise by 22% year-over-year to RMB 6 billion, surpassing the Visible Alpha consensus of RMB 5 billion. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter that Trip.com has exceeded its earnings guidance since the reopening of markets.

The company's success has been attributed to improved margins, similar to the previous quarter, and increased marketing efficiency. The sales and marketing expense ratio decreased to 21.1%, lower than the expected 23% or the 21.7% reported in the second quarter of 2024.

Trip.com's group revenue also showed positive growth, increasing by 16% year-over-year to RMB 15.9 billion, which is at the upper end of the company's guidance range of 11-16%. This growth was driven by a strong performance in outbound travel, which saw a 40% increase year-over-year, with volumes reaching 120% of the full year 2019 levels.

Despite the positive results, there may be some investor concerns regarding Trip.com's more conservative margin guidance for the fourth quarter of 2024. However, Goldman Sachs believes that Trip.com has a certain degree of control over its sales and marketing expenses and the flexibility to adjust them as necessary. The firm's maintained Buy rating reflects confidence in Trip.com's continued performance and strategic management.

In other recent news, Trip.com has reported robust Q3 results, with a 47% increase in earnings per ADS and a notable 16% year-over-year increase in revenue. The company's financial achievements have been recognized by several analyst firms.

Macquarie has raised their price target for the company to $80.80, sustaining an Outperform rating, while CFRA increased its target to $80, maintaining a Strong Buy rating. TD Cowen and Benchmark also demonstrated confidence in the company's performance, raising their respective price targets to $71 and $80.

These adjustments follow the company's strong earnings report, which was attributed to higher operating leverage and investment income. The company's future growth is expected to be driven by various factors, including deeper market penetration, demographic expansion, and a shift in consumer spending towards experiences. The company is also focusing on integrating AI to enhance user experiences and operational efficiency.

Despite expectations of increased marketing expenses in Q4 due to seasonal factors, Trip.com is poised for sustained growth in the evolving travel industry landscape. These recent developments underscore a thriving travel market in China and a strategic focus on leveraging AI for future growth. The company anticipates normalized growth in inbound and outbound travel and plans to expand its presence in Asia.

InvestingPro Insights

Trip.com Group Limited's (NASDAQ:TCOM) strong financial performance, as highlighted in the article, is further supported by real-time data from InvestingPro. The company's impressive gross profit margin of 81.6% for the last twelve months as of Q3 2024 aligns with Goldman Sachs' observation of improved margins. This is reinforced by an InvestingPro Tip noting Trip.com's "impressive gross profit margins."

The company's revenue growth of 29.74% over the same period demonstrates its continued expansion, consistent with the article's mention of positive growth driven by strong outbound travel performance. Additionally, Trip.com's P/E ratio of 16.1 suggests it may be undervalued relative to its growth potential, which is supported by another InvestingPro Tip indicating that the company is "trading at a low P/E ratio relative to near-term earnings growth."

These insights complement Goldman Sachs' bullish stance on Trip.com. For investors seeking a deeper understanding of Trip.com's financial health and market position, InvestingPro offers 12 additional tips, providing a comprehensive analysis to inform investment decisions.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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