On Wednesday, Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) maintained its Hold rating and a $73.00 price target for Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD). The firm's analysis highlighted the potential longevity of Gilead's HIV franchise, projecting its influence could extend into fiscal year 2035. Gilead's stock is currently trading at approximately 12 times the estimated 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $7.47, which is more than two turns above its historical five-year average. This valuation is believed to reflect the enduring nature of the HIV portfolio and the possibility of reaching previously untapped HIV patient segments.
The report noted that Gilead's HIV treatment pipeline includes seven new treatments based on Lenacapavir or its prodrug, which have not yet been factored into the firm's model. These treatments cover a range of dosing intervals and administration methods, aimed at managing the patent expiry of Biktarvy in December 2033. The new regimens, which offer longer-lasting effects, may also attract the additional 31% of diagnosed HIV patients who are not currently virally suppressed.
The imminent launch of Lenacapavir as a pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) treatment in the summer of 2025 was also discussed, with the first two years deemed crucial for its successful adoption. The company anticipates significant promotional efforts will be required to facilitate a positive experience for both patients and providers. It was also suggested that Descovy might continue to be used alongside the new PrEP treatment for some time, and the expansion of Lenacapavir beyond the male same-sex population currently served by Descovy could be gradual.
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