On Wednesday, CIBC (TSX:CM) maintained its optimistic stance on GFL Environmental (NYSE:GFL:CN) (NYSE: GFL), raising the price target on the company's shares to Cdn$75.00, up from the previous target of Cdn$69.00. The firm continues to endorse GFL Environmental with an Outperformer rating. The stock, currently trading at $46.74, has demonstrated remarkable strength with a 60.84% return over the past year and is trading near its 52-week high of $47.43, according to InvestingPro data.
The analyst from CIBC anticipates that GFL Environmental's comparable adjusted EBITDA margin could see a substantial increase of approximately 600 basis points over the next three years, spanning from 2025 to 2027. This projected growth is expected to be above the average margin expansion within the waste industry, potentially elevating GFL's margins into the low-30% range. With current EBITDA at $1.35 billion and analysts expecting profitability this year, InvestingPro subscribers can access 12+ additional key metrics and insights about GFL's financial health and growth potential.
According to the analyst, while an expansion in margins is expected across all waste management companies covered by CIBC for the years 2025 and 2026, GFL Environmental stands out with prospects for even more significant improvements. The company, now valued at $18.39 billion, is believed to have more readily accessible opportunities for margin growth compared to its major competitors, often referred to as the Big 3.
For detailed industry comparisons and comprehensive analysis, investors can access the full GFL Environmental Pro Research Report on InvestingPro, part of their coverage of 1,400+ top stocks.
The report highlights that GFL Environmental is already in the process of implementing strategies to enhance its margins, leveraging initiatives that have proven successful for its industry peers. The margin expansion opportunities for GFL are largely attributed to the adoption of best practices that are already benefiting its competitors. This strategic alignment is expected to drive the company's financial performance forward.
The upgrade in the price target reflects the analyst's confidence in GFL Environmental's ability to execute its operational plans and capitalize on the existing opportunities within the waste management industry. The firm's current initiatives are seen as instrumental in achieving the projected margin growth over the upcoming years.
In other recent news, GFL Environmental Inc. reported a strong third quarter for 2024, marking an almost 20% growth in adjusted EBITDA and a record-breaking adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.1%.
This performance was attributed to disciplined pricing strategies, operational efficiency, and the influence of recent acquisitions. GFL Environmental also revealed plans for significant investments in mergers and acquisitions, emphasizing expansion of its recycling and renewable natural gas infrastructure.
The company invested $96 million this quarter, with intentions to allocate approximately $900 million towards M&A and growth investments. GFL Environmental's net leverage hit a historic low of 4.05. The company is also considering the sale of its Environmental Services segment, expecting a minimum of $6 billion in after-tax proceeds. For 2024, GFL anticipates revenue between $7.5 billion and $7.82 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28.6%.
In terms of future plans, GFL aims to provide a comprehensive 2025 outlook in February, following the potential sale of its Environmental Services segment. The company projects mid-single-digit organic growth, double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth, and over 100 basis points of margin expansion for 2025. Leadership changes were also announced, with Billy Soffera succeeding Greg Yorston as COO effective January 1, 2024.
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