On Tuesday, DA Davidson confirmed its Buy rating on e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE:ELF), with a steady price target of $170.00. The firm's analysis indicated that e.l.f. Beauty's U.S. tracked channel point-of-sale (POS) growth is aligning with expectations, predominantly ranging between 10%-20% year-over-year for four of the last seven weeks. In three of those weeks, the growth exceeded 20%. Throughout the third fiscal quarter of 2025, the tracked channel POS growth has averaged 18.8% year-over-year.
This performance is particularly noteworthy as it favorably compares to the consensus estimate for total sales growth of 21.1% year-over-year. The firm's optimism is further bolstered by the projection that international sales, which constitute roughly 20% of e.l.f. Beauty's total sales, could surge by more than 50% year-over-year, and may potentially reach an increase of up to 90% year-over-year.
Seven weeks into the quarter, DA Davidson suggests that e.l.f. Beauty's financials could be setting the stage for another potential positive earnings surprise. The $170 price target set by DA Davidson is based on a multiple of 26 times the firm's projected calendar year 2026 EBITDA of $375 million for e.l.f. Beauty.
The maintained Buy rating and price target reflect DA Davidson's confidence in the company's growth trajectory, particularly in the context of its U.S. and international sales performance. The firm's analysis points to a strong quarter for e.l.f. Beauty, with the potential for exceeding market expectations.
In other recent news, e.l.f. Beauty has consistently shown impressive growth in its earnings, particularly highlighted in its Q2 fiscal 2025 results, marking its 23rd consecutive quarter of net sales growth. This strong performance led the company to revise its fiscal 2025 outlook upwards. Analyst firms Piper Sandler and DA Davidson maintained their Overweight and Buy ratings on e.l.f. Beauty, respectively, citing robust sales growth and confidence in management's capabilities.
The company also addressed allegations from short seller Muddy Waters (NYSE:WAT), who suggested that e.l.f. Beauty had been inflating its revenues, profits, and inventory levels. e.l.f. Beauty refuted these claims, explaining that the discrepancy between its reported U.S. sales and its imports from China, where the company sources 80% of its products, is due to the fact that public import data post-February 6, 2024, does not reflect the majority of their actual U.S. imports.
JPMorgan maintained its Overweight rating and a $154.00 price target on e.l.f. Beauty shares, signaling its belief in the ongoing strength and accuracy of e.l.f. Beauty's reported financials.
InvestingPro Insights
To complement DA Davidson's optimistic outlook on e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE:ELF), recent data from InvestingPro offers additional context to the company's financial performance. The company's revenue growth of 59.01% over the last twelve months aligns with the strong sales performance noted in the article. This growth is further supported by an impressive gross profit margin of 71.0%, which InvestingPro Tips highlight as one of the company's strengths.
The market seems to be pricing in this growth potential, with ELF trading at a P/E ratio of 64.48. This high valuation multiple reflects investors' expectations for continued strong performance, in line with DA Davidson's projections. However, it's worth noting that InvestingPro Tips also indicate that the stock price has fallen significantly over the last three months, potentially offering an entry point for investors who share the analyst's bullish view.
For those seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 17 additional tips on e.l.f. Beauty, providing a deeper dive into the company's financial health and market position.
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