On Friday, Citi updated its financial model for Ally Financial (NYSE: NYSE:ALLY), leading to a new price target of $55.00, increased from the previous $50.00, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The adjustment comes after a review of how electric vehicle (EV) lease-related tax benefits are recognized, which has resulted in a revision of earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the coming years.
The analyst from Citi noted that the changes to the EV lease-related tax benefits would cause a 5-10% decrease in EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 due to an expected higher tax rate, returning to a normal range of around 22%. This decrease is partially balanced by an anticipated rise in net interest income (NII), with the net interest margin (NIM) forecasted to be between 3.20% and 3.25% in the fourth quarter of 2024, 3.55% in 2025, and 4.2% in 2026.
For 2024, the firm has reduced the EPS estimate by 15 cents to $2.55, which is below the FactSet consensus estimate of $2.98. The 2025 EPS estimate has been lowered by 50 cents to $3.50, compared to FactSet's $4.19, and the 2026 EPS estimate has been decreased by 40 cents to $6.90, which stands above FactSet's expectation of $5.92. Additionally, the fourth-quarter 2024 tangible book value (TBV) is projected at $35.50, adjusted for recent other comprehensive income (OCI) marks and changes in lease accounting.
The increased target price to $55 reflects a slightly lower market cost of equity (CoE) embedded in Citi's models. Ally Financial continues to be Citi's top pick, with the firm expressing confidence in the stock's risk/reward profile.
In other recent news, Ally Financial has been under the lens of various financial firms following its recent third-quarter earnings report. The company posted a robust adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.95, largely due to tax credits from electric vehicle leases. This figure surpassed estimates from TD Cowen, Janney, and the Financial Sector consensus. Despite this, TD Cowen maintained a hold rating on Ally Financial shares, citing near-term earnings risk due to credit and margin headwinds.
Janney, while reducing their price target from $40 to $39, still advocates a buy rating for the company's stock. Citi also reiterated its buy rating with a steady price target of $50.00, expressing confidence in Ally Financial's future performance despite the anticipated peak in auto credit losses and a trough in net interest margin for the latter part of 2024. On the other hand, Barclays (LON:BARC) maintained an equal weight rating with a consistent price target of $36.00.
Ally Financial's recent developments include a quarterly dividend announcement of $0.30 for Q4 2024, and its insurance segment reaching a record $384 million in premiums. Furthermore, the company's electric vehicle lease originations accounted for 12% of total origination volume. However, the company saw a decline of $600 million in retail deposits in the quarter.
InvestingPro Insights
To complement Citi's analysis of Ally Financial (NYSE: ALLY), recent data from InvestingPro provides additional context for investors. Despite Citi's optimistic outlook, InvestingPro Tips reveal that 12 analysts have revised their earnings downwards for the upcoming period, which aligns with Citi's reduced EPS estimates for the coming years.
On the positive side, Ally Financial has maintained dividend payments for 9 consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 3.31%. This consistency in dividend payments could be attractive to income-focused investors, especially given the company's profitability over the last twelve months.
The company's P/E ratio stands at 14.28, with an adjusted P/E ratio of 12.49 for the last twelve months as of Q3 2024. This relatively low P/E ratio, combined with a price-to-book ratio of 0.89, suggests that the stock may be undervalued compared to its peers in the financial sector.
It's worth noting that Ally's revenue for the last twelve months as of Q3 2024 was $6,764 million, with an operating income margin of 12.92%. While these figures provide a snapshot of the company's financial performance, investors should consider the broader context, including the challenges in the auto lending market and the potential impact of EV lease-related tax benefits discussed in Citi's analysis.
For those seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers additional tips and insights that could further inform investment decisions regarding Ally Financial.
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