On Thursday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reiterated its Equalweight rating and $45.00 price target for Brown Forman (NYSE:BFb) (NYSE: BF-B) shares. The financial firm's analysis followed Brown Forman's second-quarter results, which surpassed market expectations. Despite anticipations of a shortfall and reduced guidance, the company reported a positive outcome with a topline and earnings per share (EPS) beat, while also reiterating its FY25 guidance.
Brown Forman's second-quarter organic sales saw a 3% increase, defying the consensus estimates that projected a decrease between 0.9% and 0.3%. This performance was contrary to buy-side expectations, which anticipated the company would not meet consensus. The quarter's operating sales growth (OSG) was positively impacted by approximately 5% year-over-year due to distributor inventory changes.
This factor helped to offset a roughly 4% challenge faced in the second quarter of the previous fiscal year. Although reported sales exceeded expectations by 2.1%, the gross margin fell short by 140 basis points, leading to a marginal 0.3% miss in gross profit.
The lower-than-expected advertising costs, which were 7.9% below the consensus, contributed to the earnings beat. Brown Forman attributed this variance to the timing of expenditures in the previous year. Additionally, the company's selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) were 1.1% lower than the consensus estimates. These factors, combined with a lower tax rate that added a $0.03 benefit per share, resulted in an EPS that was $0.06 or 11.3% higher than expected.
While the quality of Brown Forman's second-quarter performance was considered weak by Morgan Stanley, due to benefits from year-over-year inventory changes, reduced advertising spending, and a lower tax rate, it was anticipated to elicit a positive reaction in the stock market today.
This was attributed to the currently low investor sentiment. However, Morgan Stanley noted that there was no clear evidence of underlying improvement in the U.S. and global spirits markets or in Brown Forman's results.
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