On Tuesday, BofA Securities analyst Marc Mozzi revised the investment outlook for Carmila SA (CARM:FP), upgrading the stock rating from Underperform to Neutral. The firm maintains its price target on the stock at €18.00, indicating a potential total shareholder return of 22%.
Mozzi's assessment suggests that the current share price of Carmila reflects a more accurate valuation of the company's future prospects. He notes that the shares are currently trading at a 7.7% implied capitalization rate and approximately a 30% discount to the estimated Net Discounted Value (NDV) for the year 2026. This valuation is now seen as fairly representing the normalisation in rent growth for retail and Carmila's portfolio of higher-yielding shopping centres.
The analyst compares Carmila's metrics with the broader retail market coverage, pointing out that the sector typically trades at a 6.5% implied cap rate and a 23% discount to NDV. BofA Securities' earnings per share (EPS) and dividend forecasts for Carmila align with the consensus, though the firm's Net Tangible Assets (NTA) projections are 7% below the average over the next three years. Mozzi clarifies that this conservative NTA outlook is based on the expectation that shopping centre valuations will not experience significant growth.
Carmila, which specializes in owning and managing shopping centres, appears to have had its investment risk profile adjusted by BofA Securities to reflect a more neutral stance, suggesting that the previous concerns leading to an Underperform rating may have been alleviated. The unchanged price target of €18.00 by BofA Securities remains a key figure for investors monitoring the company's performance in the market.
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