On Thursday, Bernstein, a division of SocGen Group, adjusted its price target for Adobe (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ADBE), dropping it to $587 from the previous $644, while maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock. The adjustment follows Adobe’s recent earnings report which was in line with expectations, but the company’s guidance fell short, primarily due to foreign exchange (FX) impacts.
Following this announcement, Adobe's stock experienced an 8.5% decline in after-market trading. This downturn is part of a longer trend of underperformance that has persisted for over a year.
Adobe’s commentary on artificial intelligence (AI) was optimistic, yet the company’s modest results and conservative growth outlook have left investors seeking clarity. The analyst at Bernstein identified several factors contributing to the current disconnect between the company's AI ambitions and its financial guidance.
These include the complexity and challenges in creating and monetizing General AI products, the slower adoption rate among non-Enterprise customers compared to Enterprise clients, and Adobe's strategy of focusing on user base expansion rather than immediate monetization.
The analyst noted that Adobe has shifted from being a "show me" story to an "explain to me and show me" story, indicating that investors may require visible proof of AI monetization before confidence is restored. The path to revenue and annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth in fiscal year 2025 is expected to be uneven as the company introduces new technology and starts monetization efforts.
Despite the near-term uncertainties which prompted the price target revision, Bernstein expressed a long-term positive outlook for Adobe. The firm believes that Adobe’s fundamental business remains robust, that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on AI, and that it has a competitive moat to protect against rivals. The new price target of $587 reflects a forward-looking perspective and a reduced multiple from 27x to 24x, accounting for the anticipated growth challenges.
In other recent news, Adobe has been the focus of several analyst adjustments following its earnings release. KeyBanc reaffirmed its Underweight rating on Adobe with a price target of $450, citing concerns about the company's 2025 guidance and a decline in Digital Media growth. Conversely, Goldman Sachs maintained its buy rating for Adobe, setting a price target of $640, emphasizing the company's consistent history of meeting or exceeding its guidance.
BofA Securities, while reducing its price target from $640 to $605, maintains a buy rating on Adobe, citing potential growth from improved upsell and cross-sell opportunities. Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) also revised its price target for Adobe to $600 from $650, maintaining a buy rating and highlighting expected growth in Adobe's Digital Media Annualized Recurring Revenue for fiscal year 2025.
Jefferies, despite reducing Adobe's price target from $700 to $650, maintained a buy rating, expressing confidence in Adobe's long-term potential as a leader in AI. UBS revised Adobe's price target from $550 to $525, maintaining a neutral rating, due to the company's current revenue growth and the potential gains from artificial intelligence. BMO Capital Markets reduced Adobe's price target from $600 to $570, maintaining an outperform rating, based on the company's valuation.
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