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UPDATE 2-Brent crude rises above $115 on weaker dollar, US stocks

Published 05/26/2011, 02:44 AM
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* U.S. oil rises as high as $101.90; Brent hits $115.47

* Euro rebounds, but euro zone risks remain

* Surprise U.S. distillates draw supports prices

* Coming Up: U.S. Q1 GDP; 1230 GMT (Updates prices)

By Francis Kan

SINGAPORE, May 26 (Reuters) - Brent crude rose above $115 a barrel on Thursday due to a softer dollar and as an unexpected drop in U.S. distillate stocks overshadowed gains in gasoline and crude inventories.

The dollar retreated against the euro and edged down against a basket of currencies , making commodities priced in the greenback more attractive to consumers using other currencies.

The surprise distillates drawdown last week helped ease concerns the rise in gasoline inventories ahead of the Summer driving season that begins this weekend is a sign of waning demand. Also supporting the market was fresh violence in Libya and Yemen, raising the spectre once again of further supply disruptions in the region.

"The euro/dollar is the main factor driving prices today for oil and other commodities, and will continue to do so until there is some clear direction on where the dollar is headed," said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives manager at Newedge Brokerage in Tokyo.

Brent crude for July rose 32 cents to $115.25 a barrel by 0638 GMT, after rising as much as 54 cents. U.S. crude gained 27 cents at $101.62. Both benchmarks rose around 2 percent on Wednesday to close at their highest since May 10.

The euro was boosted by a report that China and other Asian investors are expected to buy a "strong proportion" of Portuguese bailout bonds when the eurozone's rescue fund starts auctioning them next month.

But the risks surrounding the single currency remain, with Greece fighting to avoid a debt restructuring that could spread to other European economies struggling with gaping fiscal deficits. [ID:nLDE74O1MZ]

U.S. distillate inventories fell 2.04 million barrels to 141 million barrels, its lowest level in April 2009, and well below projections for a 100,000 barrel build, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday.

Gasoline stocks rose by 3.79 million barrels, while crude stocks showed a modest gain of 616,000 barrels.

According to technical charts, Brent is expected to extend gains to $118.43, subject to a break above a resistance at $116.28, while U.S. oil is expected to rise to $104.60 per barrel, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. [ID:nL3E7GQ029] [ID:nL3E7GQ01P]

Analysts were divided over the longer-term direction of oil, as upward revisions of price forecasts by Wall Street banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley earlier this week deepened the divide between the bulls and the bears to levels unseen since oil prices peaked in 2008. [ID:nL9E7EA00K]

While bears cited weak demand and ebbing geopolitical risk premiums as reasons for oil to plunge to $75 per barrel, bulls saw it soaring to $140 due to supply shortages and the limited ability of OPEC to cushion any new disruption.

The market will also be closely watching U.S. gross domestic product numbers out later on Thursday for further signs of recovery in world's biggest energy consumer.

The government is expected to report that the economy grew at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter, according to a Reuters survey, rather than the 1.8 percent pace it estimated last month. [ID:nN25110127]

MENA RISK REMAINS

The risk of supply disruptions due to unrest in North Africa and the Middle-East was back in focus, as violence flared in Libya and Yemen overnight.

Heavy explosions rocked the Yemeni capital Sanaa in the small hours of Thursday as fighting to topple the veteran president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, threatened to descend into a civil war. [ID:nLDE74O2C5]

In Libya, NATO forces struck at targets in the capital Tripoli on Wednesday night, Libyan television and a Dubai-based television station said.

"The (MENA unrest) may be a little quiet recently, but the same concerns are there everyday and will continue to impact prices," said Hasegawa.

South African President Jacob Zuma will visit Tripoli next week for talks with Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and is optimistic that the meeting could help find a lasting solution to the Libyan crisis. [ID:nLDE74O2D7][ID:nLDE74O070]

Analysts said the ongoing tensions in the region have added a $10-$20 security premium to oil prices. (Editing by Manash Goswami)

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