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SGX Nikkei 225 Futures - Mar 25

Singapore
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
JP225DerivedJPY
SSIc1SingaporeJPY
JNMc1TokyoJPY
SSIc3SingaporeJPY
SSIc2SingaporeJPY
SSIc4SingaporeJPY
JNMc2TokyoJPY
JNMc3TokyoJPY
NKc2CMEUSD
NKc1CMEUSD
Currency in JPY
38,970.00
+670.00(+1.75%)
Closed

Nikkei 225 Futures Discussions

I will buy the 3x leverage. Because the yen is shit and Japan is only interested in stocks.kkk🤣🤣🤣🤣kkk🤣🤣🤣🤣kkk🤣🤣🤣🤣kkk🤣🤣🤣🤣
I started with 20,000 but became rich. Thank you Japan.k🤣🤣🤣🤣
Please maintain a low interest rate policy. I think as long as they don't exceed 3% interest rate, the yen will fall and I will only do 3x leverage investments.
All those years of can kicking and smoke and mirrors! All to get you exactly where?! I'm sure the youth of today will thank everyone later! Sure they will when they wake up to the fact that you stuck them with the bill!!! Great job central banks and governments! Japan leading the way!
Ueda have to comment about weak yen, seems they feel pain enough.
Chief Smoke and Mirrors man! Anything to run from reality. Thanks BOJ. You can kid everyone else, but can you kid yourself? Kuroda was the man! He left you a nice cupcake of joy, didn't he?!
Does anybody have an idea of the cost of japanes debt for the next 10 years? My best guess is that could be around 0 for the next two years...but from there I can't figure out any number
That said, the debt iis sso massive that debt spending at thus point is mostly counterproductive. The future the government envisions as arriving, where they stop tinkering and implement needed structural change wont happen until they are convinced the tail cannot wag the dog, but thatcreality still seems a long way off.
Here is how AI explains what Japan is doing. This also explains why Japan is digging itself constantly in deeper. The fact that the government ignores reality is quite scary. It also explains why the yen is so weak. The fact that the government continues to ignore reality ought to be on investors' radar, but clearly it is not. Hence, Japan's market is a massive bubble. When a government "monetizes debt," it typically means that the government is funding its spending by creating new money. This process involves the central bank buying government securities (bonds) directly from the government or on the open market, effectively injecting new money into the economy. Here's a simplified explanation of how this process works: Government Issuing Bonds: When a government needs to borrow money, it typically issues bonds to investors. These bonds are essentially IOUs where the government promises to pay back the borrowed amount plus interest at a later date. Monetization of Debt: Instead of the traditional method of borrowing from the public or foreign investors, the government can turn to the central bank to purchase these bonds. The central bank buys government bonds by creating new money electronically, thus increasing the money supply in the economy. Impact: By monetizing debt, the government effectively increases the money supply without a corresponding increase in goods and services. This can lead to inflationary pressures in the economy if not carefully managed. Additionally, it can erode confidence in the currency if done excessively. Risks: Monetizing debt can have long-term consequences, such as devaluing the currency, higher inflation rates, and potential loss of confidence in the government's ability to manage its finances effectively. Overall, while monetizing debt can provide short-term relief by allowing the government to fund its operations, it can have serious implications for the economy if used inappropriately or excessively.
Thirty years of this seems a little excessive, lol. Yeah, that is overstating it, sure. Not, lol.
Go go go...ikeee....
The mania in markets these days is unrivalled in the lifetime of pretty much anyone alive. It is unbelievable how few people in markets these days have done their homework, or even any homework, for that matter.
Ah...45k on the way...nothing can stop...
Oh, there are still buyers now when the expected return on this index is MINUS six percent annually. So I'm sure MINUS ten percent annually will be ever bettter. The numbers don't matter anymore at all. So why stop at 45k? Why not 80k or 100k? MINUS twenty percent annual returns make little more sense to buy than MINUS six percent returns, so why even care anymore? Sure, 45k here we come!!!
Buy your shares now and lock in a long term loss of more than six percent! According to AI: The current ratio of total market cap over GDP for Japan is 165.71%. The recent 20 year high was 174.27%; the recent 20 low was 45.59%. If we assume that the ratio will reverse to the recent 20 years mean of 97.91% over the next 8 years, the contribution to expected annual return is -6.37%.
That's more than a six percent ANNUAL LOSS by the way.
So if if you get a six percent annual dividend (good luck finding that), I guess you will break even! Amazing!
Chuck
That's very hard to say. Nobody can predict that. As for 45k, that would imply about a MINUS five percent annual return for the following ten years, which seems incredibly unlikely. Who wants to buy shares that offer a negative return that large. At current valuations the expected long term return on Japanese shares is already MINUS 3 or 4% annually. Do you really think people are that silly?
Actually at 45k the expected annual return would be maybe closer to MINUS 8 or MINUS 9 percent expected annual returns. Here is what AI says about returns at current prices: The current ratio of total market cap over GDP for Japan is 165.71%. The recent 20 year high was 174.27%; the recent 20 low was 45.59%. If we assume that the ratio will reverse to the recent 20 years mean of 97.91% over the next 8 years, the contribution to expected annual return is -6.37%.
Why would anyone buy shares that pretty much guarantee a HUGE LOSS? This I do not understand. And at even higher prices the expected losses will be even bigger!!!
37050-38700-33450-37300-30250-34700-24450... Start now
Final edit: 37000-39150-33300-37450-29900-35650-24100...37650
Seems dip buy always true LoL.
Index go down, monkie buy dip. Good luck monkie. :O :O :O
I only buy. I started with 3x leverage at 20,000. I make money even without working.kkkk🤣🤣🤣🤣
Chuck, are you shorting?
I'm not doing much right now but I have been trimming my investments in China like Alibaba. I see absolutely nothing worth buying. As for shorting, no. I do not short because the madness in markets is unrivalled these days thanks to central banks and their addiction to fostering a mania. That said, I do have a position in a reverse ETF, but I am not touchingh it. It is a long term position.
37100-38600-34500-37200-30500-34600-28700 and then buy dip hard to 40200, you are welcome
37100-38600-34100*-37200-30500-34600-27700* and then buy dip hard to 40200, you are welcome
The idea that central banks should drop and hold rates at or near, or even below zero for anything longer than a quarter turns my stomach. The idea that central banks endlessly monetize debt, that is, buy up government bonds also turns my stomach. The idea that a central bank would endlessly buy its own country's stocks and ETFs to push them up to bubble prices also turns my stomach. Why? Because these practices lead to government waste, and a corporate landscape that survives via handouts and cannot stand on its own two feet via merit, creating value, and building and creating efficiencies. It is welfare for the weak, and weakens the country.
Lemmings buying dips! Hurray for them!
Dip buy hard...target 45k in Dec...
agree with 45k, but dip under 30k first
I'd be careful. This index and Japanese stocks are not worth what people are paying for them. That makes fragility very high. What that means is that in the event of a crisis, for example, a crash in US stocks--then investors may have to wait decades to recoup their investment. A number of measures show that both the US and Japan are very big bubbles.
I’ve also heard liquidity is drying up in globally, and at least in the US, as is loan demand. These conditions are not supportive of even bigger than already massive bubbles. Do be careful.
Chuck, whats your take on this? And do you agree that on the fifth of august the fed intervened wihtout letting the world discover prices? I was apalled by it
I honestly didn't know that there was any intervention until very recently. When this index was down to 30k or so I was relieved to be honest. And I was astonished to see it rise back up. Very recently I learned that they did indeed intervene. I really don't understand the BOJ or the government of Japan. They obviously believe the tail can wag the dog. The idea that the government's debt is extremely high and the size of the BOJ's balance sheet are massive do not seem to concern them. The idea that interest rates below 2% are very extreme emergency measures does not even seem to concern them either. It is like they baulk at the field of economics and do the opposite of what history shows is wise and prudent. I think Japan is headed for defaulting on its debt to be honest. Downgrades are coming at least. These things to not surprise me though. I have worked in Japan and seriously, it is like Japan is on another planet in a lot of ways, and not only that, but seem to be very proud to do things their own way. But the stats, like the number of zombie companies that exist in Japan and the very low productivity and failure to grow GDP show that their baulking at widely practiced conventions is a problem.
As for my take on this index and its movements. I have no idea what they are going to do next. I am at odds with the actions of the BOJ and government and think them absolutely wasteful, counterproductive, and seriously problematic. They don't know what they are doing, and do the opposite of what they should. Hence, I am more and more thinking I am not going to invest in Japan again. The distortions and state run markets are a problem in my view. And they are endlessly make the problems worse.
This index is soon manupilated is unbelievable. Bank of Japan is soo coward to even increase a small rate hike.
Chuck, you there?
Hey! I watch markets a lot. They endlessly fascinate me!
me too but no one to talk to. I watch fhem 24/7
Funny people downvote my posts. But what I present is based on the numbers, which don't lie. Cape/Shiller PER is close to 30, Market cap to GDP is nearly double the long run average, and the average PER of the most heavily weight 10 stocks in the Nikkei is over 50. Hence, these numbers clearly indicate the Nikkei is a bubble. You can downvote it all you like, but it does not change the reality and the true picture these numbers paint for Japan's stock prices. Second, the excessive level of debt of Japan, at 266% limits the multiplier effect--which is the effect such spending has on GDP. It is well known that once you get over about 70%, that the effectiveness of government spending to stimulate growth starts to drop. You get less and less of an effect on GDP growth the higher the debt is. In other words, if the government of Japan wants to restore growth of GDP to Japan from government spending, it has to drop its debt to GDP to 70% or so. Until then, its spending is not very effective, and if it keeps adding to its debt it is making the situation constantly worse. Third, keeping rates below 2%, generally speaking is a second limiting factor to the country because it makes for a lot of inefficiencies and imbalances. Because of how long Japan has held rates so very low, it has changed the landscape of corporate Japan to one of a lot of misallocation of capital and expectation of handouts and endless extend and pretend loans. There is clear evidence for that if you look at the sheer number of zombie companies in Japan, which is currently around one in six and at its very low levels of productivity, which was recently determined as being very low compared to most other OECD countries. As for why Japan's stock prices are so elevated relative to GDP. It is because the world is in the throws of excessive optimism, a lot of debt spending, and supply issues. These create boom times and temporary increased profits. It is part of the cycle. But soon, the bust part of the cycle is going to kick in and stock prices are going to drop. If goverments and central banks want to make the bubbles even bigger, sure they can, but then the bubbles would grow to sizes that dwarf all bubbles in modern history, and that would create an extreme amount of fragility. In a nutshell, that is, it would create severe vulnerabilities and inefficiencies in the system. Sure, go ahead and downvote the truth. But I don't like it anymore than you, but it is what it is.
Chuck's time is slowly coming
short term = 37300-38600-34700-37200-32900
37300-38600-34500*-37200-32300* ;)
37100-38600-34500-37200-30900
Pleasant view to be honest
It’s drooping now. I think it has a way to go yet. But act on your own opinion.
Look at the indicators, every single one is in neutral. I have never seen this before
Japan has had thirty plus years of a punchbowl and handout based economy. And what has it done for Japan? GDP has been basically flat the whole time. And now, unlike thirty years ago, thanks too horrible policies, the government debt is excessive at 266% of GDP. The fact that the BOJ opened the door to the government taking on this massive level of debt ought to be a red flag. Second, the corporate landscape is rife with extreme inefficiencies, including the proliferation of zombie companies, and business models not focused on efficiency and maximizing profits via sales but rather on maximizing their capacity to get handouts from the government. It is not a good model for the long term, and explains why their policies have failed and now they are just doing the same thing, only worse because they also created a massive bubble. You would think they would realize doing the same thing has not worked for thirty years, so they ought to get with it and deal with the debt, and second, put policies in place that do not rely on punchbowl and handouts, but rather sound business practices.
What I mean is, instead of prodding companies to base their business models on getting government handouts and free money, and more extend and pretend loans from banks, the government and BOJ should put policies in place that foster business models that emphasize the companies standing on their own to feet, innovating to provide customers with better value and services versus companies that structure themselves to take advantage of free money and handouts. There are a whole host of other policies they could put in place versus their current ones that are built on punchbowl and handouts that would lead to long term growth versus endless stagnation and nothing but temporary growth and stalling. I dont get how they can't figure that out.
Inflation would follow such policies, too. Trying to force inflation with a weak yen and creating a stock bubble is not the way to do it.
I cant see any reasin why this isnt 3-400 points down. It wont budge
It’s the weak yen. It crushes the domestic economy and imports, but a move from 140 to 157 is a huge boon for exporters. The get lower input costs early and then repatriate profits and get a windfall. But it is impossible to guess currency moves.
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