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Nikkei 225 Futures - Jun 24

Real-time capital.com
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
JP225DerivedJPY
SSIc1SingaporeJPY
JNMc1TokyoJPY
SSIc3SingaporeJPY
SSIc2SingaporeJPY
SSIc4SingaporeJPY
JNMc2TokyoJPY
JNMc3TokyoJPY
NKc2CMEUSD
NKc1CMEUSD
Currency in JPY
Disclaimer
38,187.5
-37.5(-0.10%)
Real-time Data

Nikkei 225 Futures Discussions

Time to pump
How is Japan doing so well as you Japan bulls think. I am long the Hang Seng, and look at it fly. This index is not even keeping up with the US500, and its currency has generally weakened a lot--meaning any Americans or investors from other countries have done very very poorly recently on a position in this index.
you should show the longer period chart.. Nikkei and US market rose before Hang Seng..Funds already making huge profits and now they are trying to exit.. Hang Seng or Chinese stocks are cheap now, that's why funds is switching..
by the way, Hang Seng index just breakout the major downtrend, that's why recent FOMO making it 90deg shoot up which is not very healthy also.. correction need to be done in order rise more healthily and sustainable rise..
The reason the Hang Seng is rising in a sustainable way is for many reasons, but mainly because it was very vey cheap, the exact opposite of Japan. And in time both will revert to the mean on a valuation basis. The Hang Seng will rise as irrational fear drops away and the Nikkei will fall as irrational euphoria drops away.
43k
Chucky, stop acting like messiah. U have done enough damage since last year misleading people to short. U cant even pass the 1st stage to become a messiah.u better try writing children fairy tale books. Lmao
I have misled no one. The numbers are all there. Euphoria and animal spirits have driven this rally. The number do not add up. If GDP had risen you might have a case, but you dont. Also, as explained below, very high ratios of debt to GDP hinder GDP growth. Japan's level of debt to GDP is extremely high, hence expecting it to suddenly break out of its three plus decade long flat GDP level is silly. Hence, higher stock prices out of the usual range, as now, is not rational: Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Research has shown that when a country's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds a certain threshold (often estimated around 90% to 100%), it can have a detrimental effect on economic growth. As the debt burden increases, it can lead to reduced private investment, lower productivity, and hinder long-term economic expansion. Crowding Out Effect: High levels of government borrowing can crowd out private sector investment by increasing interest rates and reducing the availability of funds for businesses and individuals. This can dampen private sector activity, which is a crucial driver of GDP growth. Debt Servicing Costs: When a significant portion of government revenue is allocated towards servicing debt, it leaves fewer resources available for productive investments in areas such as infrastructure, education, and innovation. This can hinder long-term economic growth potential. Investor Confidence and Interest Rates: Excessive government debt can erode investor confidence in a country's ability to repay its obligations. This can lead to higher borrowing costs as investors demand higher interest rates on government bonds. The resulting increase in interest rates can negatively impact private sector borrowing costs and investment, thereby affecting GDP growth. Austerity Measures: In some cases, countries burdened with extreme government debt have resorted to austerity measures, such as tax increases and spending cuts, to regain fiscal stability. These measures often have a contractionary effect on the economy, leading to reduced consumer spending, lower business investment, and overall slower GDP growth.
In case you didnt know, Japan's debt to GDP level exceeds the 90 to 100% range the above passage points to, and by a lot. Japan's debt to GDP levels are in excess of 250% of GDP.
By the way. The idea that either you or I influence anyone is silly. Anyone who gets their info from a random person on a forum is a very silly person. Much as you or I might try to educate people they need to do the research themselves. And if they did they would know what is going to happen here.
ChuckKay is spaming, new ATH is coming :D :D :D
senseless message*
Agree. Stop spamming the forum chucky.
It's a DEAD forum. Without me, there would be NO discussion here at all!
What people need to understand, and this applies to both Japanese and US stocks, generally speaking, is that prices are high for two reasons, and that in both cases there is ALWAYS subsequent reversion to the mean. Hence, there are two forces that will pull these bubble prices down, and that is irregardless of current imbalances, like very very high sovereign AND private debt, and in both countries. The first is margins, which will revert. The second is profit multiples, which will revert. GLTA.
again swing down correction come TRG 37900
All the downvotes only prove one thing. First, that I am right because I am obviously hitting a sore spot. Second, that someone very likely has multiple accounts, and knows I'm right and is really really scared. All I can say is, I have been diligently doing my homework for DECADES. And I mean no one any harm. On the contrary, I am simply warning people to be careful and to do your homework without reserve and diligently, like me. Honestly I am worried.
That fast falling vix, for what it's worth, can pretty typically signal a coming market drop. But don't trust me and please and do your own dd. GLTA.
In the book Liar’s Poker these guys employed in finance have these bonds they know are going to soon be worthless, right? And so they call up these rich people and give them some phoney story and the people buy the bonds. And then after the call is over and they hang up, they howl with laughter. Dont kid yourself. These salespeople with fancy narratives about Japan are no better. And they have people trusting them hook, line and sinker.
There is no change in interest rates. Stocks always go up. However, the yen's value is falling. The same is true this year.😁😁😁
Stocks always go up, lol. Sure they do. Just tell that to the Japanese who bought stocks in 1989 and waited 35 years to break even.
The big red candles and waterfall drops continue on multiple time frames. Is this a good sign? I, for one, doubt it.
Looks like inverted cup with handle with target 32500-33000
daily or hourly or ?? chart you referring to?
Daily
And monthly I even think it will go back retest 2008-2011 low like exactly Russian index
purely TA... will see next ride up if no break below support
But the number one rule in markets for success is to NEVER lose money. And how is this for a stat? In the long run 92% of traders fail! That means only 8% are successful. Hence, being a trader is a losing game. And what does that mean? It is worse than playing black jack in Las Vegas, so why do it?
there is no Never lose money as long as you're in this market.. even Warren Buffet no 100% win.. but as long as you know when to cut loss and hold for profit, that will make your trading winning chances higher.. by the way, if youre not trading in this market,may I know why you always appear in this forum?
I'm shorting the rips. It's been very profitable. But I dont use stop losses. And if the trade goes against me, I simply wait. My trades have almost always worked well for me for many years. That said, in some cases I have to wait a long time. In this this case, I do have one position that is underwater, but I am just holding it. I have no reason to believe I am wrong. But that said, I typically hold positions for a long time--often two years or in some cases more than ten or twenty years.
Here is more information for you regarding valuation of the Japanese market overall: The current ratio of total market cap over GDP for Japan is 164.36%. The recent 20 year high was 174.27%; the recent 20 low was 45.59%. If we assume that the ratio will reverse to the recent 20 years mean of 95.42% over the next 8 years, the expected annual return for Japanese stocks is -6.57%.
When drop a lot ask people buckle up waterfall coming blablabla. When its up, u say iy shpuld go down, should be back to 22k blablabla. Get a life dude....u remind me of someone name Zencat. She is s*ck too
You sound frustrated. But Japan is a very very dangerous market to be long on. The fundamentals are very poor for Japan and the valuation numbers are ridiculous. As for the technicals, I believe they are very very bearish. I'm sorry if your trades are not working out for you, but I tell it as I see it. I am honest and frank. Sorry if you want someone to agree with you, but I dont.
As for me getting a life--markets are an obsession for me. I ready lots of books and articles about markets and have been doing so for nearly four decades. I have read at least fifty books a year about economics, investing, finance, banking and anything related for a long long time. My father was a financial guy and taught me a lot from his experience, and I love markets. Sorry if that does not seem normal to you but that is me.
selling while US buyers still sleeping😅
Here is what I think is going to happen, and I dont think it will be long now. US employment, which is already rolling over is going to continue to slip down. Inflation is going to hang in for a bit. GDP growth will continue to slow. And then as the maturity wall starts to impact companies more and more, profits will start falling surprisingly. Then the US yield curve will uninvert and then soon after markets will start to fall. Then they will start cutting rates, and the yen vs the dollar will strengthen and then Japanese companies will be forecast to see major drops in profits, and then the US and Japanese markets will both fall hard. And then there will be deflation, but Japan's government debt and the BOJ's balance sheet are so massive that they will have very limited firepower left to prop markets and the economy up further. And at that point the Nikkei will easily be approaching or under 20k. I dont know when but have seen this kind of thing happen lots of times now. And will it be different this time? No.
Here are some numbers for you regarding valuations for a handful of companies. Kao, a soap maker, for example has a PER of over 70. It used to be in the range of 20 or so. How is over 70 for soap maker rational? And here are more numbers for a bunch of companies. Shiseido, a cosmetic maker, over 80. Fast Retailing, a clothes maker, 37. Keyence, factory machine maker, 46. Daikin, air con maker, 30. Tokyo Electron, 47. And the list goes on. Sure there are other companies, but this is the trend I see across a lot of Japanese companies. I have been watching Japanese companies closely for decades, and these number are not normal for Japan, which is a very slow grower. I saw the same thing in Japanese stocks in the year 2000. Nutso valuations and it was widespread. And this is worrisome because not only are these multiples very high, but profits are going to fall, which means a lot of Japanese stocks will drop for two reasons, falling profits and falling multiples. And yeah, you can find cheap stocks in Japan, but I know from experience trading them directly, that most of them stay cheap forever. In most cases nobody but nobody buys the cheap ones.
Sell
Thats why i said Buy the Dip and always make money 😁
One caveat though. Profits have trended upwards, but the forecast is for a very big drop incoming. The forecast puts them at over but in the vicinity of half of the high recent spike in profits due to covid related stimulus and policy. And if the US comes off, and there are rate cuts, the yen with strengthen, and those profits will fall even more--and they will be back in line with GDP--which means this spike in Japanese markets will prove temporary. CAPE and market cap to GDP numbers show Japan's stocks are a bubble.
CAPE and market cap to GDP are the best valuation measure for markets and they are both very high for Japan.
Everyone knows japan stocks is bubble. But since 30k itu keeps going up and up. Me myself have been waiting for it to come down since 32k but it keeps going up and up. This bubble is made of special kind of synthetic rubber 🤔
Buy, buy, buy when you could instead buy a rising index like the Hang Seng index! Losing money is wonderful, isnt it!?
Yeah, because I thought the US was going to be in a recession by now like everyone else. But I am patient. I firmly believe the Nikkei is a bubble index and see NO indication to think otherwise. Profits are falling, the BOJ stopped buying ETFs--which it never should have done in the first place because it was the biggest force in creating a bubble in Japan, I think. Besides, the government debt in Japan is very very high, and history shows that very very high government debt is very negative for a country's growth--hence, it is safe to believe GDP will not grow much long term--and so market cap to GDP numbers give a very accurate indication of the general valuation level in Japan, and it is clearly a bubble.
I dont care if the Nikkei is 38k either. It is a very big bubble now, and if you use a reverse ETF and do not ever take very big positions in anything, then it is an even big opportunity to make good money that it was at 31k. Much better than it was at 31k.
bigger* opportunity to make good money than* it was at 31k.
Once all of the hot money that rushed into Japan figures out that this is going to continue sinking, like it has done again now for a few days, they will leave and go to hot markets like the Hang Seng, and Hong Kong. Soon, there will be rush out of Japanese markets just like there was a rush into it. And when the US market crashes, this will be back under 20k, and still heaing lower. Watch and learn.
I wish the GOP had a sober candidate vs a drama monger who hides behind contraversy. To me politics has become a real chit chow.
As for the other party. Lol. How can spending like a drunken sailor be a good thing?! Another chit chow candidate. In Canada there are three main parties vs two. The US needs a third party.
Always buy the dip and dont be influenced by story teller 😇
Here's a little tip to help you think about it. GDP has been roughly flat for decades. That is because the population in Japan has been falling for decades. Now, because market valuation depends on GDP, and there was a stock bubble in 1989, why would there not be a bubble now if stock prices are about the same now as there were then? Because it's different now? Lol! Because salespeople tell you it's different now? Yeah, sure.
People like you who don't know how to do junior high school math or understand simple logic and listen to salespeople ought to safely invest your money in treasury bonds and forget about it. But there a millions in markets these days just like you. People who have never lived through a bear market and have no idea. And most are going to lose a lot of money.
Look at nikkei right now....hopefully no one listens to you 😇
Oh yeah. The people who believe the salespeople narratives continue to downrate me. Be my guest and go right ahead. Make multiple accounts even and downvote me ten times. If you think salespeople are honest and numbers lie good luck to you. But you are in for a good lesson.
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