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USDC $73.68 B 9/01/26
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A critical period for the markets! A key development to watch in September is the expected acceleration of election campaigns ahead of the US midterm elections—a time when such activity traditionally picks up. This heightened activity is also expected to influence economic policies. Analysts believe the Trump administration will want fuel prices to decline again before Americans head to the polls. Meanwhile, Mohit Kumar, Chief European Economist at Jefferies, links the election agenda to efforts to lower borrowing costs; he notes that the administration cannot afford a rise in long-term interest rates prior to the midterms and will be compelled to lower rates, given that mortgage loans are tied to the long end of the Treasury yield curve. (Bloomberg)
💥 US TREASURY DEPARTMENT ANNOUNCES NEW MONETARY EXPANSION (PUMPING $4 BILLION INTO THE MARKET DAILY, TOTALING $1.5 TRILLION)..... The Treasury announced it will repurchase more long-term government debt, and stocks, bonds, and the dollar reacted. Starting September 9th, the Treasury is at least doubling the size of its liquidity-backed repurchases in longer-term sectors; from a cap of $2 billion per transaction to at least $4 billion. In neat terms, the government is stepping in to buy more of its own long-term bonds; this supports prices and eases pressure on gold and silver in the market. (Financial Agenda)
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U.S. annual interest expense has reached a record 18.5% of federal government revenue. This officially surpasses the previous record of 18.4% set in 1991. This rate has more than quadrupled in the last four years as interest payments on public debt have skyrocketed. U.S. annual interest expense has now reached a record $1.25 trillion, more than four times the level seen in 1991. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield is trading at 5.21%, just 13 basis points away from its highest level since 2007. The U.S. debt crisis has entered uncharted waters. (economist)
Registered stocks in COMEX warehouses have fallen by 25 percent as the wave of physical gold demand intensifies. Rising physical demand is straining global storage and clearing systems, with private vaults—from Zurich to Singapore—filled to capacity. Household gold wealth in Germany has surpassed 1.5 trillion euros. Bloomberg
Alarm bells in global markets! China withdraws 890 billion yuan from the market and shifts to gold ETFs. The People's Bank of China's withdrawal of 890 billion yuan has sparked concern in the global economy. While the decline in US bond holdings and rising gold reserves draw attention, experts note that this signals a shift in financial balances. LIQUIDITY CONTRACTION STANDS OUT. According to experts, this move could be a step toward cooling the economy or part of a broader strategy. Withdrawing such a large amount of capital from the market indicates a tightening of financial conditions. PULLBACK IN US BONDS. It appears China is altering its strategy not only domestically but also on a global scale. Reports indicate that the country's holdings of US Treasury bonds have fallen to approximately $694 billion—the lowest level in 20 years. GOLD RESERVES RISING. Meanwhile, China continues to increase its gold reserves. Recent data shows reserves exceeding 74 million ounces. This trend is interpreted as a move by nations toward safer assets during periods of economic uncertainty. Bloomberg
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that he would no longer invest in long-term bonds due to the potential bond crisis that could be triggered by the U.S.'s $39 trillion national debt, and would instead turn to tangible assets such as metals (gold, silver). — Bloomberg
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Daniel Hynes (ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist): Highlighted that the appeal of gold has increased as inflation data put an end to expectations of interest rate hikes. Noting that the market has fully priced out the possibility of rate hikes, Hynes stated that gold is being supported and that $30 billion flowed into gold ETFs in July. Bloomberg
BMO US Chief Economist Scott Anderson stated that the CPI report showed a decrease in pressure on consumer prices. He added that falling inflation and weak employment data in July paved the way for the Fed to keep the policy rate unchanged at its September meeting, with plans for rate cuts in 2027. (Financial Agenda)
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