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We haven't even reached the point where Middle Eastern Arab countries begin to buy back the trillions of dollars' worth of physical gold they sold at the start of the war with Iran... Naturally, they will want to replenish this physical gold, and no one can calculate how high the price will soar when that happens.

A recent report published by precious metals market analysts at the British asset management firm Schroders highlights a notable East-West dynamic in the global gold market. While Western investors maintained their positions in June, Asian investors and central banks in emerging economies resolutely continued their gold purchases. Analysts predict that gold prices will test new highs within the next three to six months as the impact of the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance wanes. The need to refinance $8–10 trillion in US Treasury debt and finance a budget deficit of approximately $2 trillion over the coming year is creating a massive interest burden that exceeds the defense budget. This situation severely limits and hinders the Fed's capacity to raise interest rates in its fight against inflation. The National Bank of Poland, which began strategic purchasing following the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, is expected to reach its 700-ton gold target this year and continue buying thereafter. Data from the World Gold Council and OMFIF indicate that Poland is a trendsetter among emerging economies. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) stands as the most critical player due to both its purchasing volume and the "signaling effect" it exerts on other central banks. After making a symbolic purchase of 2 tons when prices exceeded $5,000 per ounce, the PBOC seized the opportunity presented by the price drop to an average of $4,250 in June, increasing its monthly purchases more than sevenfold to 15 tons. Analysts suggest that the Beijing administration may be keeping its actual gold purchases hidden beyond what is reflected in official data and could—as it has in the past—announce large-scale, one-off physical gold acquisitions in the future. Calculations based on current prices per ounce indicate that gold accounts for 8.3% of China's total reserves. Should the People's Bank of China (PBOC) seek to raise this ratio to 30%, it would need to maintain the record-breaking purchasing pace seen in June without interruption. The trend of global central banks bolstering their reserves with gold is expected to continue supporting gold demand and prices for decades to come.

China, Japan, India, and European nations are rapidly offloading massive amounts of US Treasury bond holdings. Japan is actively converting its US assets into physical gold. Volatility in the bond market is intensifying. Funds are reducing their equity holdings, and a massive wave of buying is expected for metal ETFs. (Source: Bloomberg)

Confidence in the US has come to an end... Norway's state-backed wealth fund aims to shift away from US government debt instruments and toward physical gold holdings. Norway, a non-EU European oil producer, plans to convert its reserves—currently held in US dollars and bonds—into physical gold assets... Bloomberg.

Confidence in the US has come to an end... The entire world is withdrawing its physical assets from US control. The Netherlands has moved 86 tons of its gold reserves—valued at billions of dollars—from the US and Canada to the UK. The Dutch Central Bank announced that this decision was driven by rising geopolitical risks, the fact that gold is a liquid asset, and the need to be better prepared for crises. The bank reported that, between March and August, a total of 86 tons of gold reserves—previously held in New York (USA) and Ottawa (Canada)—were transferred to London. Prior to the transfer, 31.3% of the Netherlands' gold reserves were held in New York and 19.7% in Ottawa; following the transaction, the share of reserves held in both cities dropped to 18.5%. (Bloomberg)

Even US Allies Are Moving Away from the Dollar and Rushing to Physical Gold… The trend of moving away from the dollar in the global economy has taken on a new dimension. Canada’s move regarding its $25 billion sovereign wealth fund and France’s repatriation of physical gold held at the New York Fed to Paris demonstrate that even the US’s closest allies are seeking to reduce their dependence on the American financial system. Financial News

Bank of Japan (BOJ): The central bank reported selling a significant portion of its US Treasury bonds and dollars in exchange for physical gold; this shift in reserves is expected to continue, leading to a further reduction in the weight of US Treasury bonds in its portfolio and an increase in physical gold reserves. (Bloomberg)

Registered gold stocks in COMEX warehouses have fallen by 25 percent amidst rising demand for physical gold. This surge in physical demand is straining global storage and clearing systems, pushing private vault capacities—from Zurich to Singapore—to their limits. Household gold holdings in Germany have surpassed 1.5 trillion euros. Bloomberg

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