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US Coffee C Futures - Dec 24 (KCZ4)

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252.33
-9.32(-3.56%)
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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

In addition to the problem of lack of rains on the Brazil coffee belt (today the last run of GFS weather model has substantially less rain than the yesterday previous forecast for week 2 (ending 29th September), while week 1 basically still no rain), there is also a problem of temperatures significantly higher than seasonal average (in a large part of Sao Paulo and North Minas Gerais-Cerrado high temperatures above 90 degree F, i.e. 10 degree F above seasonal average. This trend should continue also next week. It is worth monitoring. Different weather forecasters think this weather trend could continue also in October.
Also USDA in its last World coffee report (June 2019) had a forecast of 59,30 million bags for 2019 Brazil coffee production. The market view on 2019 Brazil coffee crop is not unanimous at the moment. I think that the convergence of market opinion will be towards 50 in the next weeks and this fact will favour a bullish price window (in the period mid September-November).
All these production reports and weather predictions have zero influence on coffee price. Why fool yourselves into cheering your buying? Sad to see even Short Dude fall I'll now infected by bull bacteria. In your deepest heart you know that above one Dallas is not sustainable. Face it. Coffee is cheap for a reason. Too much of it and it is not needed. Yes, it is sad.
 for example last spike was only about weather forecast... ;)
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