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ICE US Coffee C Futures - Jul 25 (KCc2)

ICE
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
379.35
+2.95(+0.78%)
Delayed Data

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

i would try sell now but i have it already lower :D
if we dont go down, we are going up.
Wider markets set for a kicking. Silver looks like a very attractive trade right now. Money lookung for safe heavens. Coffee started ok but as us futures got batter coffee turned too
The other day you said coffee was going to get beaten down with the wider markets…
Nielsen data – reported by Reuters – shows that coffee sales in Europe and North America, the world’s two biggest consumer markets, fell by 3.8% in volume last year, while prices rose by an average of 4.6 per cent. Legit data, now talk again shortdude
Reuters referred to Nielsen in relation to volume, sold by importers in roasted and ground beans and underlined that hand to mouth regime is in place (what's not news for a long time already). Also underlined the rise of the private labels :). And no soluble data which always rises in such a situation... Roughly 3% would be nothing strange rationing wise, 3% of 175mb is 5mb, underproduction in 2024 was about 8mb in Brazil only. :) Rationing is not cancelling, it is balancing.
Same R article underlined that raw bean price in the cup in the cafe/restaurant is about ... 2%. :)
Not sure about your NCA comment. The data shared by KDRP was the drop of 3.8%. They had a 2% drop budgeted. The coffee selling price they have baked in is $3.00 green coffee 'C' price. They are now considering adjusting to $4.00 price but are concerned about how that will drive consumption even lower. This is the definition of "stuck between a rock and a hard place".
Germany's February retail sales rose 4.9% year-on-year, against a forecast of 3.1%. The previous reading was 3.3% (revised from 2.9%). Germany's retail sales performance in February was the best in 2 years.
NKG? This is the company that, at 250 in the fall, told you that flowering had gone wonderfully and Brazil would have a very good harvest? And you went all in on short positions? No thanks, I won't trust their analysis again. All the companies you mentioned have a vested interest in buying coffee beans cheaply in Brazil and other producer countries. They are not unbiased. NKG lied like crazy about flowering.
Oh sorry, the penny aka Lambo trader is the benchmark for KC...sorry for mentioning irrelevant companies hahahahhah....what a plonker
..and yes, trees are full of coffee beans in Brazil and weather is just perfect
The latest monthly green coffee bean import data for China just came out. Jan 2025: 15900.3 MT, compared with Jan 2024: 37143.3 MT. Down by 57.19% Y/Y.
Such armageddon as on copper?
ShortDude. Better watch last Vicente Zotti podcast and if stoch on daily will start showing divergence vs price :).
Vicente shortly touched everything, including rationing. He also referred to 1982 water stress in relation to current :). 1982 water stress produced 100 points move from 1983 to 1986 :).
The wider markets have topped for now, general commodity trackers will get pulled down, and pull coffee along with many other softs down, in order for coffee to weather the coming storm, significant bullish drivers will be needed.
i hope the bears enjoyed their 36 hours in the sun (or, the rain maybe) but it looks like the roaster pin is beginning. play stupid games, win stupid prizes.. the roasters lose in '25.
This means that if last year’s raw material price increases were passed through in full this year, it would equate to a 28% price rise to the consumer, Reg Watson, director of equity research at Dutch Bank ING, told Reuters. Meanwhile, Nielsen data – reported by Reuters – shows that coffee sales in Europe and North America, the world’s two biggest consumer markets, fell by 3.8% in volume last year, while prices rose by an average of 4.6 per cent.
Coffee sales fell 3,8% in europe and north america!
and another price hike are coming! this will let demand drop even further
it iswhy Brasil broke the the coffee ecporta record 2024
consumers dint care anout tbe price of coffee as much as youd think. see what has happened to airline prices they pay it and move on. the ones complaining are the roasterss and super markets with tighter margins.
In a convenience store coffee sales are insignificant. Chains are implementing privet labels to fill lower ends. Once completed, margin will be better in fact :). And do not forget online sector that is much much cheaper model vs brick and mortar. In US in 2024 online coffee sales reached about 3.5 billion dollars and have shown growth about 50%. Besides US, Germany, France, UK, China are among online leaders :).
Long Live The Thermometer !!! :):):)
Yes, Viriato's concern will certainly cause temperatures to drop. Your actions Kenan, on the other hand, are cruel to producers. You have stopped drinking coffee, you are not buying new beans for your coffee roaster. Because of you, consumption is falling. You are cruel!
Kenan, you like it or not, but there is seasonality in Brazil, like practically everywhere, may be Mullingar is different :):):). And the invention of thermometer was a real big thing - you may google it yourself :). Previous up cycle started in 2001 and finished in 2011, it is roughly 10 years after reaching cyclical low in 2001, which was about 40c. The longest down cycle lasted from 1977 to to 1992, roughly 15 years. From 2000 to 2004 the price was below 80c and it was not due to cheapest production ever :). As ShortDude said, why wouldn't you think about some effective strategies and will get back to drinking coffee ? Like one/two cups a day at home ? As US online 2024 sales have shown, there are still some customers that need product :).
The temp in Oaxaca reached 45C recently, in March, Oaxaca grows coffee. I don't know the temps at all farms in Oaxaca and I don't know how exactly it will affect the production, but I know for sure that 45C is not beneficial for coffee tree :) if the good quality/weight beans are the goal. :)
Long live Xi !
Long live Xi !
Long live TRUMP !
With Traffis KC is aiming 120-150 max
Price drop. Phone rings.
450 soon, we will see it, Tariffs
So the price of a caramel macchiato in USA will go from $8 + 40% price hike + 25% tarrifs to $14 dollars. I think the tarrifs will drop demand significantly if that happens!
Cost of coffee beans in Starbucks drink is around 3%. Much more is rent, salaries, even milk is more expensive in Starbucks coffee than coffee beans.
I worked in starbucks in 2019. Tall , grande, venti = 3,4,5 espresso shots. 1 shot = 30ml, so venti is 150ml coffee like the math viriato made. And beside starbucks. Coffee beans still get a price hike these month of another 40% + the 25% tarrifs. So it doesn't matter from which comlany you buy. Price still go up 65% which will significantly hurt the demand
US TO TARGET ALL BRAZIL SECTORS IF IMPOSES TARIFFS ON IT: FOLHA
This guy can only hold his short penny in his hand. Trader he is not.
How do you know that on April 2d US will hit all Brazilian commodities with the tariffs ??? :)
so panic buying or demand destruction? still in the camp speculators buy up to pin sleeping roasters in the weeks coming to FND.
not a fun 36 hours for longs, but a clawback here would be pretty dismaying for bears. FND 4/22/25 & 6/20/25
Still on the same thought of few days ago 372 area could be painful for longs
Like you say, those pivots at around 370 could snap. The channel up that was building the last week or so snapped to hard, there is potentially much better points south if these prices to look to get long, the short argument for the long term is looking stronger but we are not there yet
Closed all my positions today. Will sit and watch for now. I dont thinj the bull run has finished but there could be a better price ti get back in south from here in the coming weeks.
What for 170-200 and then go heavy long
Fool
If your lines analysis works, take a position and stop playing monday morning quarterback!
Buy dips...go long as much as you can...that was it.before 400, 500, 600 and.higher (I hope)
Extemisms (both sides up/down) predictions do not help the scope of the forum, as well as some personal comments that touch sensibility of some participants into the opinion Exchange that could be all valuable.
There is a legendary cat that had 9 lives. I have a very strong feeling that this cat is gonna fall in a severe depression, as Bruno is about to demonstrate once again (I lost my count but it's been more than 9 already :)) that he's perfectly fine :). (Yes, cats may have a depression.)
Depression most probably Will be more related tò the origins that supposedly could have missed good opportunities. Cats if not injured severely know how survive
167 podcast is out and highly suggested to those, interested in practical knowledge. it explains many things in details, probably, for the first time with such a depth. Fully (!) admits the effect of high temps. Anybody may come to his own conclusion, but it points :) to the fact, that 2025 A crop underproduction will be admitted :) and underlines potential (!) issues for 2026.
are you a producer as well? Coffee trees are incredibly resistant, fyi.
Maybe trees, but not flowers and fruits.
Coffee Arabica. I'm aware of it :). I was a producer of other agriculture for some years (by mistake :)) but I quit because it got way too complicated for me weather/fungus wise. Coffee farms were across the street :). There is no doubt that coffee tree is resistant and modern cultivars especially. But the question is not about resistance, it is about the yield that due to high temps suffers, this fact is very well studied and it is common not only for coffee trees :). Exact percentage is unknown but it is not huge - just about 10% or so... This is why there was no disaster declaration in Brazil, as 10% is nothing killing at all for any average producer. But we should remember that it is kinda :) certain year in row when production can't get back to normal and this is what started confusing many :). If 2025 will be considered 10% below 2023 it will mean 5mb more to subtract from the global balance, etc...
KC is done...save yourselfs :))))
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