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US Coffee C Futures - Mar 25 (KCH5)

Real-time derived
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
320.97
+2.37(+0.74%)
Real-time Data

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

Conab 1st evaluation for 2025 crop is scheduled for Jan 28th. If all pictures/videos/rumors are just half true :), CONAB report may surprise :) a lot. In the absence of other news, KC perfectly has one month to test 275 cluster and trend line support, for daily stoch to get oversold and possibly to make double bottom :) and for the trend to continue. :) And export should start reflecting the rumors :).
Viriato do you really think the market needs a CONAB report to keep rising? The rise from $150 started without any reports, simply the market reacted to the heat after the bloom. If all the time until February the market will fall it means, however, that the losses are not as big as Maja tells us and the stocks at least are temporarily sufficient and without weather troubles we will somehow survive until the abundant harvest in 26.
To be brave at 150 and at 350 is not quite the same... :) Previous ATH was reached and for many it was a reasonable goal. Current price reflects 2025 expectations to some degree as official reduction for 2024 crop was not big :). CONAB may be a real catalyst. :) It is hard to explain delay with Dec 2024 report and re-scheduling it for Jan 21st other than some kind of confusion, etc. Thus, we'll have 2 reports within 7 days, if both will come out bullish, that will be a good reason for the trend to continue :). 2026 is not clear right now :), there is no guarantee it will be abundant :), nobody knows at this point :). The rate of the fruit set that Maja confirms is, in fact, a real big disaster, even if averaged in a very conservative way. VC and Safras look very optimistic :)...
Safras, just to mention, projected A reduction for 2025 to be about 15% :) - the crop to be about 38mb. (Besides Lavazza's plan to open about 1000 stores in China by 2028 in the partnership with Yum China. Assuming Lavazza knows coffee, they know what they are doing :).)
We going for $300 before anything up
KC to follow cocoa today? -10pct? Lets see...maybe that will shut down the Tinder flower power boys
I would offer as a New Year resolution to put KC on ignore. Maybe he will go to Pork Bellies....
Im whit you
*i’m with you
KC, You are a swell guy, maybe even your family likes you. But, what are you doing here, I mean what is your purpose except being offensive?
This is a forum to discuss about coffee, not to show off how big dealer or producer you are, as all opinion matter, you come here with a bunch of lues showing off how big you are(actually only bragging as you never told the name of your employer). You are not expert in coffee market; as nobody is, for exampkk li e you are wrongue about KC for the last six months
KC, It is not that I care or worry if you like me or not. You are nothing, and yet you continue. GO AWAY, nobody wants you here!
Who cares. I dont
JCA Stocks Nov 2024 - 2.17 mm bags ( -6.2% m/m | -8.4% y/y)
Who is nobody calling them self on Cocoa today in relation to coffee ? Coffee soon -10pct as well ? Where are cocoa-coffee experts....holidays....bla bla bla
You lots yourself...what did you say ? Please in english
Why*
Bruno’s comment made more sense than your babbling… seriously, what are you even saying in the first sentence?!
Be cautious with cycles above 300 cts/lb; nothing lasts forever.
i did a coment about estatistics and you ask ne if i new what is it, also coment about the guy in my region that every year he tell us; this year we will have a frost. Ten years later we gad a frost and he start yelling: I told you guys, this coment was made for you and Coffee. After that you disapear for while
Bruno O Souza Coffee has a life of its own and I don't care if prices go up or down, the important thing in my case is to be in the right direction and always limit losses with Stop Losses. When you buy it at 250 and êxito a 300, I don't need to complain.
so you did not believe in yourself when you told that the KCwould go down? Instead you bougth at 2.50 really? I don t get it;im buying at 2.50 beacause is going down
Go bulls! There's no coffee in the world. We have to pay a fortune for beans
why?
when the market will open?
After 3 h
It's Bank Holiday today also
What are your expectations for the opening price
KC, nothing better to write about?
“What are your expectations for the opening price?
Mkt is closed 2day
It is already open
So X is now a realiable source for coffee statistics. I am looking forward when Only Fans will be a reliable source for coffee as well. The sooner the better.
It is very important to understand, that the paradigm that Brazil will be producing more and more every year no matter what and will always compensate other origins, etc was built and incorporated into the mentality on specific long term climate cycle basis and this cycle ended roughly in 2020. A new cycle, that started in 2020 and should be completed around 2050/53 has absolutely different basis and so, possible effects, what was confirmed by anomalies we already observed. The peak of this cycle should come in 15 years or so, what implies that bigger surprises may be in the pipe :). Nobody knows how it may/will affect coffee production going forward, but unknown (as uncharted territory :)) always means higher POTENTIAL risk, not lower. :)
Conab 4th 2024 evaluation will come out on Jan 21st 2025 :). 1st 2025 evaluation - on Jan 28th 2025.
Kkkkkkk, you are really funny German Russian
I found these calculations on X and think they are worth sharing. Brazil 2 year production: 23/24 + 24/25 = 66+64=130. Brazil 2 year consumption 2x22.5=45. Brazil exports 18 months end Dec 31 = 23.6 + 49.4=73 estimate. 130-45-73=12mln available for export for next 6 months plus Brazil stocks in July 23. If stocks were 10mln, absolute max export will be 22/6 = 3.6mln during next 6 months. If stocks were 8mln, absolute max average will be 20/6 = 3,33mln bags during next 6 months. Calculations assume that Brazil will be left at the end of 24/25 with absolutely zero stocks, which probably won't happen, so real exports will be even lower on average for the next 6 months. Let Brazil produce 60mln in the 25/25 season, and let local consumption drop to 22mln, that leaves 38mln for export, or an average of only 3mln per month.
Merry Christmas to everyone, congratulations to everyone who made money with coffee and may next year be no different, earn double what you wished coffee growers for the 26th. Happy Holidays.
If to consider USDA being most balanced :) out of all :), the ending 24/25 stocks have been projected as 1.25mb roughly. 1.25 / 66.4 = roughly 2%. This is a paper number of course as nobody knows exact one, but as stocks to production ratio it is very very very small. A kinda normal one wold be about 5mb at least or better 10% of production. In current environment and narrative any significant drop in export, especially month after month, will not be viewed as demand problem. It will be viewed as supply problem. Previous big spikes tops have happened pre/during harvest for a good reason: it became obvious for everyone that production will be abundant. It is absolutely impossible in current environment to come to such a conclusion re 2025 crop in December, January, etc.
I'm joining Rodrigo and wishing to everyone a Very Merry X-Mass and prosperous 2025 !!! Long, Short or Neutral :) - make money, be happy and enjoy every day !!! :)
You know the story of the chicken man. The one who is supposed to count the chickens in all the farms. But what he does is he calls farmers and they complain that a lot of chickens have died and the number given is much lower. Then the chicken counting man places his report based on what farmers have claimed. This way the market starts going crazy.
The difference is that ECF stocks and export/import numbers are based on facts but not just assumptions. If you will apply potential very conservative underproduction for 2025 A to ECF stocks at the moment, you will see those ECF stocks roughly nullified. In reality it is not like that of course, but it gives a clue about the degree of the problem as stocks to usage ratio = zero can't be bearish by definition :). The issue is not just in possible 20% reduction in Brazil, the issue is in the context, which includes all the problems at once and globally.
The producers want to have a chicken man . He's a chicken patsy.
A dearth of anything in an inelastic market can create crazy prices. We dont know what next year holds weather wise or the year after, do averages go back to norm or not? The problem I see is the current predicament has not played out yet. Whats really worrying is the weather next year could compound the situation and we have seen oil prices trickle down for 2 years now. Statistically oil will rally for one reason or another.
True. ICE stocks close to a 3 yr high. I think January is going to be a very interesting month for coffee. Either very bad crop or shopping spree derived from the fears of ports strikes in the US, I think everything will develop in the next month. This aside, as for the interested parties predicting crop armaggedon (not to be discarded), just check previous comments years ago.
Viarto @ how can a example of an nano producer of 1300 bags be relevant to an origin of 50, 60, 70 or more bags being the output. What kind of statistic and mathematic sample is that? ITS VALID ZERO. How can you downgrade your selfe su such UNIMPORTANCE ?
Bruno has 70 hectares, his forecast was 2600 bags and with the weather he only managed 1300 bags. You said "nano coffee grower", this demonstrates your knowledge in SMG coffee farming. Research the average size of the properties and you will be surprised.
70% of the Brazilian producers are small, smaller than me, but you don’t know it as you dont know any Brazil producer. You buy from the guys you are reporting having trouble; big dealers, actually you gave no clue about Brasil or coffee producing. And as Viriato pointed you will never be able to buy my coffee, i dont sell cheap coffee
ICE arabica storage report dec 23th almost 1 million bags!
It can be ZERO and they can drive it till moon and it can be 20 mil and they can let it fall to 20 usc/lb
KC futures has got nothing to do with coffee
It us funny that in July I aready had sell the coffee from the farm that was let from the ones reserved for my costumer in UK, USA and Europe, beacuse i believed that the coffee would go down after harvest as the coffee trees were outstanding and promissing a beatifull 2025 harvest. Was at tge farm two days ago and the trees look much ugly comparing with beggining of August. KC is showing the reality of 2025 coffee harvest in Brasil I started to be worried when the KC was above 2.40 in August and with no rain in september, the blossom outstanding but the abortion was very high just couple days afeter flowering, we will harvest less in 2025, and 2024 was off year.
yes i heard and it us perfect here
Well it is not a donkey, it is an ass...KC, that is.
PS. Why don't you go away? You are offensive and have nothing to give this chat besides nonsense and obtrusive remarks.
Very simple, ICO clearly said surplus 6.9 mil bags. Period ! Coffee more then enough. Everything else are speculations and theories.
Childish*
Have there been any drinking water restricting likenin 2015 ? NO THERE HAS NOT. Has anybody reported chritical levels of dringking water this summer, NO HAS NOT ! CONCLUSTION : no drought ever happened its a lie and lousy try to.withheld.thr sale.of coffee and now.Brazilians can not sell.it. You to confirm this year in highest peak season demand&consumption is alrewdy down in december in SE EU only for 20 days of the month. Imagine how down will ge Jan -March. Just tomorrow ai will have a meeting, with roaster no 1 here with the point how to delay or washout some for 1 HF 2025 and grown of cheachpea purchase. Coffee participants "have shot themself in the tight feet with a flint gunL
Now i understand why Coffee KC is here, a place where he can pit no sense as he rezlly is fake, do not have company, but in tgis unonimous forum ge can be somebody, with no name
There is no coffee in the world :( I don't drink it anymore so that there is enough for others
are you sure that you buy coffee?
Bruno, it should be underlined, that there is enough coffee for current price :), and he continues buying and paying this current … high price :):):).
yes but not great qualities unfortunally
It is really just every US commodity. Robusta isn't even moving all this like the big manipulating US does. Nothing in every other country moves the way US moves
In relation to VC, Safras, etc comments it is good to keep in mind, that during good old days the diff between ON and OFF A crop in Brazil in USDA terms could be 15 - 20% WITHOUT any disaster involved, just on very natural basis and pruning :). And it was never scaring anybody :):):)...
I guess that preparation of so big manipulation is taking more time than usual. 🤪
:):):)
CONAB is bureaucratic a bit :), the delay may be related to the fact that they are re-evaluating something 7 times before publishing :). Usually, Dec report does not show big changes, that's why it feels a bit strange. But if I would like to surprise the market :), I would do it today or tomorrow. :) (Just a joke :))
No dry weather in Brazil CB Shorty ? Wow....how is that possible ?
no it is you that are predicting berish since August, right?
You still dont get it...you can be what ever you want on an anonimous forum...got it now...i can be bearish, bullish, neutral, honest, dishonest, superman or batman...what ever you want...short, long....it means nothing on this forum...nothing has credibility at all
Or...an A S S
Viriato, thank you for reconfirming what every agri business person should have known since day one. The fact that Gil Barabach, "pointed out that the historic drought that hit the Southeast, especially the States of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, took away energy from the plants, which made it impossible to sustain the exuberant flowering in October." Is so basic, it is sad, that the HUGE minds out there did not even consider it. Now they are crying. Bummer.
The fact they (VC, Safras,...) accept the damage so early and of a scale already is very telling and in many ways: 1) If I remember correctly, it was nothing like that in 21/22 comments wise :) and the drought was historic :) as well; 2) so early statements paint the degree of the problem; 3) producers noted their comments with all possible implications :).
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