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US Cocoa Futures - Dec 24 (CCZ4)

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7,196.50
+37.50(+0.52%)
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US Cocoa Futures Discussions

This 2500-4500 rally in one year repeats probably in 15-20 years again..Previous doubling price had occurred in 2008 (1450-2900)..This last drastic rally has been really extra ordinary and unexpected at all..That can not be only explained by high demand and under supply due to floods in producing regions..very interesting movement
last years‘ average price is 3400$..now it is 30% higher than even this high average price..do u think high demand will be sustainable under given supply or default production..I don‘t think so..at some point market rules must work..even manipulation has the limit
based on grindings numbers past few quarters and Lindt numbers yesterday, demand seems to be holding up (I personally dont think for long because most have not adjusted their prices). chocolate umis proving to be very elastic
then these chocolate firms are supposed to have bad times unless they increase their prices..maybe they had bought cocoa long ago at 3xxx prices and did not need to adjust for a while..but first increase will effect the demand for sure..cocoa prices must experience free fall somehow..on the other hand, supply seems to be better in 2024
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