💎 Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 set to trigger market. Find undervalued gems with Fair ValueLearn More

“Big-SIS” Joins The Party With A Potential Warning For Stocks

Published 04/24/2012, 02:43 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
BIG
-

Two weeks ago my first “Sensitive Issues Scoring” model based on relative positioning of and among nine economically sensitive ETFs issued a first warning for equities.

Last week, a fuller, more robust version driven by fifteen intermarket sector, style and country ETFs weighted for importance joined the party with its own warning signal as trading heads into the summer season.
Big Sis Chart
In-sample weekly S&P 500 (SPY) market performance separation between the three Bullish, Warning and Bearish states for the seventy-four-month period between February 2006 and April 2012 follows:
Big Sis In Sample Chart
“Separation” is bull- minus bear-state summary statistics. Now, with historic volatility continuing to fall, I’m not overly concerned about these warnings just yet (see below). However, they definitely have me on guard for potential deterioration, and I’m holding hedges until this current state warning passes.
S&P 500 SPY Historic Volatility
Never Investing Advice

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.