Gold remains weak, holding within a trading range beneath its latest record highs at 1921.15. A confluence of bearish signals continue to weigh (including DeMark™ indicators), coupled with the CME’s recent 55% hike in margin requirements, which warned of Gold’s prior reversal, that led to a $200 drop in only 3 days. Note, a series of margin hikes (in a short timeframe) can to lead to major highs (akin to Silver’s historic crash in April).
Downside trigger levels hold at 1704 (25th Aug low) and key level at 1600. Only a sustained weekly close beneath here would unlock an even larger decline.
A glance at the big picture shows that Gold’s long-term 12-year bull market has exhibited intermediate cycle peaks, which continues to mark the latest parabolic move as a “high risk zone” (also pressured by a unique long-term DeMark™ exhaustion signal).
Closer examination tells us that the largest price falls during this time (34% in 1999, 26% in 2006 & 34% in 2008), equates to an average drawdown of 28% downside risk from Gold’s all-time high at 1913.50. This would trigger a sharp decline into Gold’s long-term 200-day MA (which has not been tested in over 3 years!) Only a weekly close above 1934-35 and 2000 would help extend the uptrend higher.
Please see the attached chart below...
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16.09.2011 Daily Technical Report GOLD
Published 09/16/2011, 09:48 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM
16.09.2011 Daily Technical Report GOLD
Gold grinds lower towards 1750.
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