Key fundamental forex events for the week of January 25th through January 29th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of January 25th through January 29th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, January 25th
12:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 3 versus last 5. The currency fell.
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 107.3 versus 108.5 expected. The currency rose.
6:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “What low interest rates are doing, however, is stimulating the economy and especially the demand for durable goods, like cars. That supports the recovery, boosts incomes and will ultimately lead us back to normalisation more quickly. If, on the other hand, we were to raise rates today, the opposite would happen. It would simply push us back into recession and rates would stay lower for longer.” The currency rose.
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
Tuesday, January 26th
10:45am GBP BOE Governor Carney said that, “First, the general global environment has been much more febrile, much more volatile. Relying on the kindness of strangers is not optimal in that type of environment, and that’s what is the case when you’re running a 4%, 4.5% current account deficit. And secondly, the possibility of a risk premium being attached to UK assets because of certain developments exists. And that plays into the riskiness of the situation.” The currency rose.
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 98.1 versus 96.6 expected. The currency fell.
Wednesday, January 27th
12:30am AUD CPI 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
12:30am AUD Trimmed Mean CPI 0.6% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
2:00pm USD New Home Sales 544K versus 501K expected. The currency fell.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 8.4M versus 3.8M expected. The currency fell.
7:00pm USD FOMC Statement noted that, “Given the economic outlook, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.” The currency fell.
7:00pm USD Federal Funds Rate 7:30pm GBP MPC Member Shafik said that, “From today’s vantage point, it is easy to forget how revolutionary the introduction of RTGS was back in 1996. Before RTGS, all interbank payments were subject to some element of settlement risk – the risk that a bank would fail between the time it promised to make a payment, and the time it delivered on that promise. By allowing banks to settle high value transactions between each other, electronically, in real time, RTGS eliminated settlement risk on the largest payments flows – the ones most likely to threaten financial stability by bringing down the system if they failed.” The currency fell.
8:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 2.50% versus 2.50% expected. The currency fell.
8:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement noted that, “Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative. Some further policy easing may be required over the coming year to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range. We will continue to watch closely the emerging flow of economic data.” The currency fell.
9:45pm NZD Trade Balance -53M versus -130M expected. The currency fell.
11:50pm JPY Retail Sales -1.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
Thursday, January 28th
12:30am AUD Import Prices -0.3% versus -0.8% expected. The currency rose.
All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI -0.8% versus -0.8% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Rate 20.9% versus 21.1% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Preliminary GDP 0.5% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders -1.2% versus -0.1% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 278K versus 281K expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders -5.1% versus -0.6% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales 0.1% versus 1.0% expected. The currency fell.
11:30pm JPY Household Spending -4.4% versus -2.3% expected. The currency fell.
11:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI -0.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
Friday, January 29th
12:30am AUD PPI 0.3% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
3:38am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that, “At the Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided to introduce ‘Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with a Negative Interest Rate’ in order to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time. Going forward, the Bank will pursue monetary easing by making full use of possible measures in terms of three dimensions; quantity, quality, and interest rate.” The currency fell.
5:00am JPY BOJ Outlook Report noted that, “Comparing the current projections with the previous ones, the projected growth rates are more or less unchanged. The projected rate of increase in the CPI for fiscal 2016 is lower, and the projection for fiscal 2017 is more or less unchanged. The downward revision of the projection for the CPI and the delay in the projected timing of the CPI reaching around 2 percent are due to the assumption of lower crude oil prices.” The currency fell.
6:30am JPY BOJ Press Conference: Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that, “There's a risk of further falls in oil prices, uncertainty over
emerging economies, including China and global market instability that could hurt business confidence and delay the eradication of people's deflationary mindset”. The currency fell.
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales -0.2% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 100.3 versus 95.9 expected. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI -0.3% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash GDP 0.8% versus 0.8% expected. The currency fell.
9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply 4.7% versus 5.2% expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate 0.4% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate 1.0% versus 0.9% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD GDP 0.3% versus last 0.0%. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD RMPI -3.8% versus last -4.0%. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Advance GDP 0.8% versus last 2.0%. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Advance GDP Price Index 1.2% versus last 1.3%. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Employment Cost Index 0.6% versus last 0.6%. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Goods Trade Balance -60.0B versus last -60.5B. The currency rose.
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 45.4 versus last 42.9. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 93.1 versus last 93.3. The currency rose.
Technical recap for the majors this week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.07901 open to a 1.0827 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 118.602 open to 121.48 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.42606 open to a 1.42070 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.69983 open to 0.70771 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.41411 open to a 1.40670 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.64848 open to a 0.6470 close.
Risk Statement: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.