New Zealand dollar tumbles broadly today as RBNZ indicated that further policy will be needed, paving the way for another rate cut in August. Swaps data is pricing in 90% of a cut in OCR at the meeting on August 11, from current 2.25% to 2.00%. The central bank noted that long term inflation expectations are "well-anchored" at 2% but short term inflation expectations remain low. And, the "stronger exchange rate implies that outlook for inflation has weakened since the June Statement". And, "a decline in the exchange rate is needed". NZD/USD drops to as low as 0.6950 so far today and the breach of 0.6970 near term support is taken as a sign of near term reversal.
Yen follows as the second weakest major currency on speculation of July easing by BoJ. According to a Reuters poll, 85% of analysts expected BoJ to ease at the meeting on July 29. Also, an unnamed source was quoted that BoJ would downgrade the economic assessment on inflation to "improving steadily". There were also talks that if BoJ postpones the time frame for meeting the inflation target again, it will exceed governor Haruhiko Kuroda's term which ends in April 2018. And that would be seen as unacceptable. Another view is that BoJ would be asked to announce easing this month, alongside with prime minister Shinzo Abe's new fiscal stimulus. USD/JPY is picking up upside momentum again today and the break of 106.78 resistance is seen as a sign of trend reversal.
ECB meeting and press conference will be the major focus today. The central bank is widely expected to keep policies unchanged, including the EUR 1.8T asset purchase program. But it's anticipated that president Mario Draghi would warn of the post Brexit risks and pave the way for further easing, possibly in September. On the data front, Australian NAB business confidence dropped to 2 in Q2. Japan all industry index will be released in Asian session. UK retail sales, public sector net borrowing and Swiss trade balance will be featured in European session. US will release jobless claims, Philly Fed survey, house price index, existing home sales and leading indicators later in the day.