In the first half of fiscal year 2016/2017, India’s GDP growth reached 7.2%, buoyed by the dynamic pace of household consumption in a disinflationary environment. In H2, in contrast, growth is expected to slow significantly due to the shock created by demonetisation. The liquidity shortage triggered a sharp drop in automobile sales, and PMI indexes have plunged to May 2013 levels. This shock should nonetheless be short lived. Activity is expected to rebound in FY 2017/2018, facilitated by the consolidation of corporate balance sheets, even though the troubles of state-owned banks could restrict loan distribution.
Demonetisation triggers growth shock
Indian GDP growth hit 7.2% in the first half of fiscal year 2016/2017 (ending 31 March 2017). Household consumption and public spending were particularly buoyant, while investment continued to contract for the third consecutive quarter.
Yet H2 growth should slow down sharply due to the liquidity squeeze triggered by demonetisation.
On 8 November, the Indian government decided to withdraw all of the INR 500 and INR 1000 banknotes from circulation by 31 December (85% of the banknotes in circulation). The government claimed this measure would curtail the shadow economy, corruption and money laundering. It is hard to say whether the operation will be successful in the medium term. In the short term, however, demonetisation has triggered a sharp economic slowdown, because 78% of payments are made in cash. At the end of December, 48% of the deposited banknotes still had not been replaced. The first economic indicators for November and December show a sharp drop in automobile sales and a downturn in household and corporate confidence indexes.
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by Johanna MELKA