Most Data Remains NeutralOpinion
For the past several sessions, the data and charts, in our opinion, had been suggesting some sideways digestion of the rally off of the early February lows. At this point, the data and charts are continuing to send the same message. The bulk of the data remains neutral while the charts have maintained the integrity of their short term uptrend lines and near term support. Overbought conditions have retreated while investor sentiment remains an overhanging concern.
· On the charts, yesterday’s declines came on negative breadth and up/down volume while overall volumes accelerated slightly. As such, it is suggestive of some institutional distribution, in our view. At this point, all of the short term up trends remain intact as well as near term support levels. However, we would note both the NASDAQ (page 3) and RUT (page 4) are now on bearish stochastic crossover signals implying some potential for further retracement. Such signals are to be used for confirmation purposes only. So, from the charts, there are some implications of some further digestion of the rally gains near term.
· Looking at the data, the vast majority of it is neutral. The 1 day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators fell deeper into neutral at -36.36 on the NYSE and -25.76 for the NASDAQ. The 21 day levels are still overbought at +88.89 and +57.98. The fact the 1 day levels have pulled back to neutral quickly over the past few days with little market damage is encouraging for the more intermediate term by our work. The WST Ratio (52.0), its Composite (129.0), Equity Put/Call (.58) Total Put/Call (.81) and OEX Put/Call (1.31) are all neutral.
· Sentiment does remain an overhanging concern as insiders have stepped up their selling resulting in a low and bearish 6% Gambill Insider Buy/Sell Ratio while the “crowd” measured detrended Rydex Ratio (contrary indicator) remains unfazed at a high and overly optimistic 1.79. These leveraged ETF traders may need to become more concerned before the digestive process terminates.
· For the longer term, we remain bullish on equities as they remain undervalued with a 6.51% forward earnings yield for the SPX based on 12 month IBES forward earnings estimates of $121.60 versus the 10 Year Treasury yield of 2.77%.
- SPX: 1,8350/?
- DJI: 16,090/16,493
- NASDAQ: 4,242/?
- DJT: 7,350/?
- MID: 1,355/?
- RUT: 1,169/?