Weekly Unemployment Claims Up by 24,000

The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was released this morning for last week. The 24,000 increase was from an upward adjustment of 3,000 for the previous week (372K, previously 375K). The less volatile and closely watched four-week moving average came in at 381,750, the ninth week below 400K after 29 consecutive weeks above that benchmark. Here is the official statement from the Department of Labor:

    In the week ending January 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 399,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 375,000. The 4-week moving average was 381,750, an increase of 7,750 from the previous week's revised average of 374,000.

    The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending December 31, unchanged from the prior week's revised rate.

    The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 31, was 3,628,000, an increase of 19,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,609,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,605,000, unchanged from the preceding week's revised average.

Today's seasonally adjusted number came in above the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 375K.

As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (shown in the callouts) is a more useful number than the weekly data.
Occasionally I see articles critical of seasonal adjustment, especially when the non-adjusted number better suits the author's bias. But a comparison of these two charts clearly shows extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data, and the 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change in the second chart (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, a 52-week moving average gives a better sense of the long-term trends.