Market movers today
Today's main event is the US January jobs report. We estimate job growth was 160,000, still primarily driven by services. The annual growth rate in average hourly earnings rose to 2.9% y/y in December, but is likely to fall back to 2.7% y/y in January despite a monthly increase of 0.25% m/m. We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.7%, but see a risk that it might increase to 4.8% if the labour force participation rate moves slightly higher.
The ISM non-manufacturing index for January is also due for release. It likely stayed around the December level of 56.6, as the Markit PMI services index signalled solid growth in the service sector in January with an increase to 55.1.
In the Euro area, retail sales figures for December are released. We expect a strong figure with a 0.7% monthly increase, following the 0.4% monthly decline in November. Euro area consumer confidence has been rising from August through December and other survey indicators have created high expectations for Q4 growth. Thus, we expect the retail sales figures to reflect strong growth in Q4.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below