The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of August 22nd through August 26th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, August 22nd
1:30pm CAD Wholesale Sales 0.7% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.
10:00pm NZD RBNZ Governor Wheeler said that, “Central banks must make finely balanced judgments when setting monetary policy, based on evidence, research, scenario analysis, and continual review of their policy record and international experience. As is the case elsewhere, there are a range of views about what monetary policy can achieve and how it should be operated. In New Zealand, these include a view that flexible inflation targeting is no longer an appropriate framework for conducting monetary policy.”The currency rose.
Tuesday, August 23rd
5:00am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda said that, “Due to the spread of the internet, smartphones and social networks, the amount of data and information disseminated through various networks has expanded exponentially. Innovation in information technology makes it possible to process and analyse such ‘big data’ speedily. Also, information related to retail transactions of goods and services, which was left unused in the past, is now gathered through loyalty cards and e-money cards and utilized for business purposes. Moreover, new forms of economic activities comprising the ‘sharing economy’ have been realized thanks to new information technology.” The currency rose.
8:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.5 versus 49.1 expected. The currency fell.
8:00am EUR French Flash Services PMI 52.0 versus 50.6 expected. The currency fell.
8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.6 versus 53.7 expected. The currency fell.
8:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI 53.3 versus 54.3 expected. The currency fell.
9:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.8 versus 52.1 expected. The currency fell.
9:00am EUR Flash Services PMI 53.1 versus 53.0 expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD New Home Sales 654K versus 575K expected. The currency rose.
11:45pm NZD Trade Balance -433M versus -320M expected. The currency rose.
Wednesday, August 24th
2:30am AUD Construction Work Done -3.7% versus -1.9% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.39M versus 5.52M expected. The currency rose.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.5M versus -0.5M expected. The currency rose.
Thursday, August 25th
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 106.2 versus 108.5 expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders 1.5% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 261K versus 265K expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders 4.4% versus 3.4% expected. The currency fell.
Friday, August 26th
12:30am JPY Tokyo Core CPI -0.4% versus -0.3% expected. The currency rose.
9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply 4.8% versus 5.0% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Second Estimate GDP 0.6% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Preliminary Business Investment 0.5% versus -0.9% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Preliminary GDP 1.1% versus last 1.2%. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Federal Chairmen Yellen opening the Jackson Hole Symposium said that, “Looking ahead, the FOMC expects moderate growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), additional strengthening in the labor market, and inflation rising to 2 percent over the next few years. Based on this economic outlook, the FOMC continues to anticipate that gradual increases in the federal funds rate will be appropriate over time to achieve and sustain employment and inflation near our statutory objectives. Indeed, in light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months. Of course, our decisions always depend on the degree to which incoming data continues to confirm the Committee's outlook. And, as ever, the economic outlook is uncertain, and so monetary policy is not on a preset course.”The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 90.6 versus last 90.4. The currency fell.
3:30pm GBP MPC Member Shafik said at the Jackson Hole Symposium that, “This month the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) – of which I am a member – voted to introduce a package of measures to support the necessary adjustments of the UK economy as it responds to the decision to leave the European Union. This package included a reduction in Bank Rate to a new low of 0.25%, and the launch of a Term Funding Scheme to reinforce the pass-through of this cut, alongside a £60bn increase in our stock of UK government bonds and the purchase of up to £10bn of investment grade non-financial corporate bonds.” The currency rose.
Saturday, August 27th
All Day ALL Jackson Hole Symposium
5:25pm JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda has not yet spoken.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.13059 open to a 1.12638 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 100.758 open to 100.786 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.30499 open to a 1.31879 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.75999 open to 0.76437 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.28878 open to a 1.29173 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.72450 open to a 0.73316 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.