Nobody Wants to Ask The People

Prime Minister George Papandreou was forced to stand down after a revolt led by his finance minister. That’s what happens to those who want to listen to the people. I still support the referendum because I support democracy. C’mon ZEUS, ask the people!!! This move will be yet another reason to take the euro up. It seems that the Europeans have learned from the 2008 lesson. Back then, the euro kept on falling for months without any significant retrace. Now, they are mastering rumors in order to try to avoid such a scenario.

Mario Draghi started his first press conference with a unanimous rate cut of 0.25%. What a start! This may be the last time we talk about Trichet. Honestly, I like Trichet for some reasons. Despite my disagreement with some of the ECB decisions, Trichet was always clear on what kind of decisions he may take in the future. In the end, we’re traders; we just trade whatever we are given. All his rate changes where predictable (except joint central banks rate cut decisions which came in as a surprise) Trichet has made from the ECB the most reliable Central Bank. Bernanke, for example, takes the surprise effect into consideration as soon as it presents itself.

Now the Draghi is the Chairman of the ECB, we will need to his style and body language in order to get some clues on future ECB decision. It’s going to take some time… The ECB decision was muted by the Greek political action. The single currency is still in a range awaiting the big non-farm payroll! The EUR/USD has a higher probability of breaking to the upside than to the downside. Trade with good money management and never under-estimate the short-term trends and specially the rumor trends.

NFP is expected at 97k while the previous number was 103k. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at 9.1%. You already know that I don’t recommend trading whenever NFP is ahead. This time there’s a good probability that they can move the US dollar in the opposite way of what the numbers dictates (if it’s what they want) because markets are more focused on Europe and Greece.