AU Retail Sales release may not move the market much but it is the first tradable release for the month of June, traders could be looking forward to this release and prepared to jump in. At any rate, with the effects of Cyclone Debbie affecting the retail market, today’s release could disappoint to say the least, but in the event of a strong release today, we should see plenty of market reaction as a “better than” release is probably not widely expected.
9:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous -0.1%
DEVIATION: 0.5% (BUY AUD 0.8% / SELL AUD -0.2%)
The Trade Plan
The deviation that we are looking for the Australian Retail Sales m/m release is for a minimum of 0.3%. If we get a 0.8% (or better) we´ll look to buy and if we get -0.2% (or worse), we’d look to SELL. There is a high probability of market movement of over 50 pips in the next 2 hours if we get our deviation.
We´ll be looking for an after-news retracement trade and we´ll do the 3 W´s. Wait for the deviation, Wait for the market to move with momentum first, and Wait for a decent retracement.
I’d recommend to trade the Recommended Pairs above as they are based on my CSM and should provide you with an edge by pairing up the best currencies to trade in the event of a good/bad news. Of course, you can also trade the default pair: AUD/USD.
Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
DEFINITION
“Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders payclose attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.”