Week in Review Part III: Foreign Affairs

The loss of a sophisticated RQ-170 drone to Iran may not be the strategic loss that some are saying, let alone a crisis, but it was a major embarrassment. Some claim that Iran will be able to reverse engineer the technology though this seems doubtful. As for Iran selling the technology to the seemingly intact spy plane to Russia and China, those two already have much of this knowledge. It’s just a huge propaganda victory for the Iranians at a most propitious time for them. [Though in viewing the video of the drone on display, it does appear that officials are looking for the ‘on’ switch.]

Meanwhile, the question remains, just who is attacking Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities, as well as assassinating key individuals involved in both the nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs? Some of the incidents may not be part of any covert operation at all, but rather simply accidents as Iran claims, though this doesn’t explain the Stuxnet computer virus, nor the assassinations by ‘sticky bombs.’ [Reminder: If a mean-looking guy on a motorcycle pulls up alongside your car and attaches something to it…try to exit the car immediately from the other side.]

As for the potential debilitating impact on Iran’s nuclear and missile ambitions as a result of the chaos inflicted on them, only time will tell just how effective any covert operations have been. I’m of the camp that believes the missile program has no doubt been set back, but that the uranium enrichment operation proceeds largely without delay.

Separately, the Wall Street Journal had a piece titled “Iran Tries to Gain Sway in Latin America.” I told you that about eight years ago.

Douglas Farah, a security consultant who recently wrote a Defense Department study on Iran’s growing presence in the region, told the Journal, “Iran is looking to develop an ability to inflict damage on the U.S. in the event of an American or Israeli strike against its nuclear facilities or its military.”

As to a report that Iran is planning to base medium range Shahab 3 missiles in Venezuela, both Venezuela and the Obama administration deny this is true.

Syria: President Bashar al-Assad, in an interview with Barbara Walters, told her he would be “crazy” if he killed his own people. Assad then offered a point-by-point denial of allegations of human rights groups, the United Nations and neighboring countries that his troops had arrested and killed hundreds of children (among over 4,000 victims of the uprising). Assad claimed most of those killed were his own soldiers and supporters. Walters did what she could in presenting evidence to the contrary, which he beat down, adding, “I cannot feel guilty when you do your best. You feel sorry for the lives that have been lost. But you don’t feel guilty when you don’t kill people.”

As for the opposition, the problem is it is fractured.

Picture, though, living on the border with Syria in Lebanon, where Syrian soldiers fire across into the villages without warning. It’s pure terrorism. Many have been wounded by stray bullets. Former U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon, Jeffrey Feltman, one of our better diplomats and now the key representative for Washington in the region, vowed the United States would support the Lebanese Army in its efforts to secure its borders.

What a difficult situation Lebanon presents. Last Tuesday, for the first time in ages, Hizbullah leader Sheikh Nasrallah appeared in public in Beirut (Nasrallah normally addressing his followers by video for fear of Israeli assassination) and said Hizbullah was continuing to arm itself and that he would stand by Syria’s Assad.

“Our power has increased and so have our arms day after day,” Nasrallah said. As the Daily Star reported:

“Thousands of men dressed in black applauded as Nasrallah yelled: ‘The resistance in Lebanon, with its weapons and mujahedeen, God willing, will continue to exist. We will hold onto our arms…our weapons do not rust. They are being renewed.’”

Nasrallah was actually in public view just a few minutes before reverting to a video address. Israel missed this opportunity to take him out.

Egypt: The Muslim Brotherhood accused the military regime of trying to circumvent the ongoing elections in vowing to have a say in the writing of a new constitution. On Wednesday, a member of the council told Western journalists, virtually all Americans, that the military planned to play a major role because the new Parliament wouldn’t represent the will of the broader Egyptian public.

“Do you think that the Egyptians elected someone to threaten his interest and economy and security and relations with the international community?” General Mukta al-Mulla asked. “Of course not.”

For its part, the Brotherhood, which had been part of the military council for the purpose of giving advice, has now opted to withdraw its participation, thus ensuring future clashes as Gen. Mulla insisted the new prime minister would report to the military council, which isn’t exactly the way it’s all supposed to go down, sports fans.

Daniel Byman, a professor at Georgetown University and an expert on the Middle East, had an op-ed in the Washington Post discussing the Arab Spring. Byman reminded us that just a few months ago, “President Obama optimistically declared that, across the Arab world, ‘those rights that we take for granted are being claimed with joy by those who are prying loose the grip of an iron fist.’”

Err, not quite, Mr. President. Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria…are not exactly lining up in the victory camp for the West just yet.

Iraq: Aside from a new wave of attacks that killed dozens, the Wall Street Journal reported that key officials and military leaders are being taken out, one by one, by militants linked to al-Qaeda, especially in Kirkuk in an attempt to divide the resource rich, and relatively peaceful, region.

Afghanistan: A Pakistan-based extremist group claimed responsibility for a coordinated series of bombings here that killed at least 63 Shiites on a holy day, Ashura, which marks the death of Shiite Islam’s holiest martyr. Heretofore, Afghanistan had been largely free of sectarian conflict. Or as President Hamid Karzai put it, “Never in our history have there been such cruel attacks on religious observances. The enemies of Afghanistan do not want us to live under one roof with peace and harmony.”

Russia: On November 26, eight days before Russia’s Duma elections, I wrote:

“(It) appears Putin and Medvedev’s United Russia party’s popularity is plunging…How badly will the vote be rigged? You just know the Kremlin is furiously prepping officials at the polling places. An outrageous outcome, one that is clearly suspect, could lead to sweeping demonstrations.”

And so the results were highly suspect and there were indeed large demonstrations in the two places that matter, St. Petersburg and Moscow. The protests were not violent, but hundreds were nonetheless arrested as thousands chanted, “We need new elections,” “Russia without Putin,” “Revolution” and “Shame.” It was an unprecedented display in the Putin era, with Vlad then proceeding to blame U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for “(setting) the tone for some opposition activists…(she) gave them a signal.”

Rights activists and opposition leaders said 20 to 25 percent of the vote was fabricated and there was solid evidence of youth groups stuffing the ballot boxes for United Russia. Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev called on the Russian Government to cancel the results, describing them as a “lie.” Gorbachev warned Putin and Medvedev that unrest would grow unless they admitted the election was fraudulent and agreed to hold a new one.

So what does this say about the March 4 presidential election? Putin is lucky as there is no viable opposition through which the people could channel their frustration. He needs 50 percent to avoid a run-off and as of today he’d still probably eke it out. But it’s a long way between now and March. A growing segment of the Russian population has had it with the daily grind and dealing with an incredibly corrupt system. Are we witnessing the beginning of a Russian awakening? Putin himself has to be shocked, given Russia’s solid economic growth (owing ostensibly to the energy sector), particularly the past eight years.

China: Among the government’s many issues is smog in Beijing, which on Sunday and Monday was so thick it led to the cancellation of hundreds of flights and shut highways. Coal burning remains the major cause of the pollution and the people have had enough.

On the military front, President Hu Jintao urged the navy to prepare for combat, amid growing tensions over the South China Sea and what Beijing sees as a campaign by the U.S. to reassert itself in the region.

The navy should “accelerate its transformation and modernization in a sturdy way, and make extended preparations for military combat in order to make greater contributions to safeguard national security,” he said.

Hu made his comments to the powerful Central Military Commission. [South China Morning Post]

North Korea: According to the Washington Times, Pyongyang is making a concerted effort to construct an ICBM that can strike the United States. It is also evidently capable of being transported on roadways, making it more difficult to track. The White House has discussed the development with a House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces.

India: The nation is reeling from a hospital fire in Calcutta that killed at least 94 as six administrators fled rather than help patients. Plus, it took fire trucks an hour to arrive at the scene, partly due to congestion.

Belgium: After a world-record 541 days without a formal government, Belgium has one. The new leader is Elio Di Rupo…so we toast him with a Stella Artois. “Long live Di Rupo…and I’ll take another Stella while you’re up.”

Di Rupo has vowed to draw up a plan to close Belgium’s nuclear reactors as soon as possible. On the second thought, “Forget the Stella…I’ll have a Coors Light.”

Japan: According to an annual government poll, a record 82 percent of Japanese have friendly feelings toward the United States. Why thank you! We appreciate this. The same survey has 71 percent of respondents not feeling friendly towards China.