Black Friday is Now! Don’t miss out on up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Commodities Market Update - November 18,2011

Published 11/18/2011, 02:26 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
GC
-
SI
-
TODAY'S GRAIN SELL-OFF:  DOES IT MEAN ANYTHING?

In my last Update, I asked the same question about the grain rally stating technically it did not mean anything. Well the sell-off today did.  It added to the technical damage already on the charts.  Let's take a look at the weekly charts:
 
Corn:  On the weekly it further confirmed the beginning of a third wave down.  If it fails 600, the next potential support after that would be 550.  Today's sell-off further confirms its inability to get back over the 20 day ma on the weekly.  Technically that means it is probably headed for the 100 day ma down at 550.
Wheat:  On the weekly it has been in a downtrend since the Feb. high.  The third wave down stalled at 600 but failed it today.  It took out that key support plus it is now under both the 100 and 150 day ma. Very negative. This potential wave down should eventually reach 500.
Soybeans:  Today's action put them under the 100 day ma on the weekly chart.  That is negative and suggests they're headed for the 150 day ma at 1115.  Doing that would take them under the previous low and further confirm a new wave down with projections to 1000.
Meal:  The most negative in the group it closed today under the 300.00 long term support for the first time.  It is under all three moving averages and has not stopped selling off.  With follow through it should reach 280.00 nearer term.
Bean oil:  It sold off today but is still above the 50.00 support on the weekly chart.  It is under the 20 day ma and most likely is headed for the 100 day ma that intersects at 48.60 currently.
 
MORE TO THE METAL'S SELL-OFF?

The sell-off in gold and silver today long term is suggesting more of the same:

Silver:  Today's sell-off did technical damage long term.  Silver has been in a down trend on the weekly chart and a sell firmly triggered this week on the weekly chart further suggests the start of a third wave down.  That means silver should not hold the 30.000 support this time down.
Gold:  Today's sell-off is making a stronger argument for a 1,2,3 top formation on the weekly chart.  It is barely hanging on to the 20 day ma on the weekly.  If it fails to hold it, we will most likely see 1600 gold.  Why?  Every market that has failed the 20 day ma on the weekly heads lower - without except so far.
 
                   "EMOTION is your enemy more than any market will ever be."

THE MARKET UPDATE is designed to help you combat emotion.  How?  It is designed to not only help you learn how to trade but also to develop discipline.  That is only achieved through a structured approach to trading.   By my reviewing technically all the major markets helps you obtain knowledge of the markets.  By my giving structured trade suggestions helps you see what discipline and a consistent trading habit requires. Knowledge, discipline and habit help minimize emotion.  Also by including the reasons for the trades, you are able to follow and/or compare my work with yours. Or, if you do not have the time, as many don't, you can simply use my guidelines for placing your own trades.

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.