Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies
US dollar net speculator positions decline to -$6.46 billion
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators remained bearish in their bets of the US dollar as speculative positions fell for a ninth straight week.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar short position totaling -$6.46 billion as of Tuesday May 3rd, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$2.27 billion from the -$4.19 billion total short position that was registered on April 26th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The US dollar speculative position has declined eighteen out of the last nineteen weeks and a March 1st increase of +1.7 billion has been the only increase in aggregate dollar bets on a weekly basis since the new year.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Last week’s data showed that the biggest movers on the positive side were the euro (+16,048 change in weekly contracts) and the British pound sterling (+8,261 contracts). The euro positions have now gained for seven straight weeks while pound sterling positions rose for the second straight week. Canadian dollar positions (+6,944 contracts) continued to gain for the fourteenth straight week.
Other currencies last week showing speculative positioning gains were the New Zealand dollar (+1,816 contracts) and Mexican peso (+6,895 contracts).
Currencies whose speculative net positions declined last week were the Japanese yen (-4,977 change in weekly contracts), Swiss franc (-2,436 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-7,145 contracts).
This latest COT data is through Tuesday May 3rd and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160329 | 67351 | -5673 | -63811 | 2242 |
| 20160405 | 59737 | -7614 | -53487 | 10324 |
| 20160412 | 55803 | -3934 | -52051 | 1436 |
| 20160419 | 51940 | -3863 | -46917 | 5134 |
| 20160426 | 44726 | -7214 | -39667 | 7250 |
| 20160503 | 27558 | -17168 | -23619 | 16048 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160329 | 60506 | 716 | -40028 | -2305 |
| 20160405 | 70900 | 10394 | -46506 | -6478 |
| 20160412 | 74181 | 3281 | -51310 | -4804 |
| 20160419 | 71019 | -3162 | -55152 | -3842 |
| 20160426 | 67606 | -3413 | -48669 | 6483 |
| 20160503 | 56878 | -10728 | -40408 | 8261 |
Japanese Yen:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160329 | -59963 | -2452 | 54387 | 1041 |
| 20160405 | -69057 | -9094 | 60073 | 5686 |
| 20160412 | -70758 | -1701 | 66190 | 6117 |
| 20160419 | -76829 | -6071 | 71870 | 5680 |
| 20160426 | -67685 | 9144 | 66498 | -5372 |
| 20160503 | -65495 | 2190 | 61521 | -4977 |
Swiss Franc:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160329 | 3151 | -1870 | 4647 | 461 |
| 20160405 | -2077 | -5228 | 5649 | 1002 |
| 20160412 | -8137 | -6060 | 8238 | 2589 |
| 20160419 | -10027 | -1890 | 9410 | 1172 |
| 20160426 | -4664 | 5363 | 9265 | -145 |
| 20160503 | -4870 | -206 | 6829 | -2436 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160329 | 3659 | -6000 | -6180 | 8829 |
| 20160405 | -6488 | -10147 | 97 | 6277 |
| 20160412 | -10102 | -3614 | 2385 | 2288 |
| 20160419 | -18065 | -7963 | 7308 | 4923 |
| 20160426 | -25684 | -7619 | 11999 | 4691 |
| 20160503 | -30745 | -5061 | 18943 | 6944 |
Australian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160329 | -35765 | -4284 | 23466 | 5436 |
| 20160405 | -37235 | -1470 | 26845 | 3379 |
| 20160412 | -45114 | -7879 | 35122 | 8277 |
| 20160419 | -53551 | -8437 | 44106 | 8984 |
| 20160426 | -68470 | -14919 | 59540 | 15434 |
| 20160503 | -58577 | 9893 | 52395 | -7145 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160329 | -1657 | -204 | 1874 | 857 |
| 20160405 | -2793 | -1136 | 2903 | 1029 |
| 20160412 | -3974 | -1181 | 4292 | 1389 |
| 20160419 | -5959 | -1985 | 5351 | 1059 |
| 20160426 | -9373 | -3414 | 7384 | 2033 |
| 20160503 | -10543 | -1170 | 9200 | 1816 |
Mexican Peso:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160329 | 41861 | -4130 | -40796 | 4900 |
| 20160405 | 33303 | -8558 | -31878 | 8918 |
| 20160412 | 47092 | 13789 | -46591 | -14713 |
| 20160419 | 13463 | -33629 | -14409 | 32182 |
| 20160426 | 19344 | 5881 | -19315 | -4906 |
| 20160503 | 12550 | -6794 | -12420 | 6895 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.