Very little movement today, with only noticeable data being German inflation for June out at 0.1% as exp. Tomorrow's UK CPI and US PPI should help increase volatility.
MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
Central Bank
ECB's Quaden sounding a lot more dovish than normal, commenting that the ECB hasn't yet decided whether to raise rates in september. He said he expected the rate path to become a lot less obvious now. He also said the ECB's accommodation was a lot less accommodative now. Note that this further underlines just how split the ECB's governing council has become. These comments hardly sit comfortably with Trichet's post meeting press conference 10 days ago. Getting a decision agreed is going to get a lot harder.
Sarkozy says "France is for ECB independence." This is new. It is not a surprise for us, however. We wrote in our research last week that Sarkozy battle to change ECB status was a lost one (and a unnecessary one). Today's declaration will alleviate speculations that ECB independence could be in danger. Note also that there is a change in tone regarding the euro. Instead of speaking about the "overvalued" euro, he now mentions the problem of other currencies. This is more or less in line with what the G7 mentioned about "misalignment" of currencies. Like for the ECB, Sarkozy is back to a much more orthodox stance.
Data
US July Empire manufacturing index 26.5 from June's 25.8 and against forecasts for 18.0.
Canadian May manufacturing shipments -0.1% in May vs. consensus +0.2%.
German Inflation for June, 0.1% and YoY at 1.8% in line with expectations.
Technicals
EURUSD dropped off a bit in early European trading, but 1.3740 support held up nicely with 1.3690 being key for the present intra-week uptrend. Wednesday's US CPI to help set the trend. We still prefer buying on dips throughout this week.
GBPUSD managed to take out 2.0400 in early Europe, but was unable to keep gains. We remain intra-week bullsih as long as 2.0250 remain intact. An accelerated move below would technically suggest a downward correction to the 2.0150 area.
Carry trades still remain bid through the recnent sell-off, with a break of 120.00 in USDJPY needed before we actually start believing in a more sustained move in unwinding of high yielders.