The yen drops sharply after the BoJ left rates unchanged at near zero level today and boosted the loan program. The central bank doubled the so called Growth Supporting Funding Facility from JPY 3.5T to JPY 7T. Also, the BoJ Extended the term of its loan support program by one year. The target was increase in monetary base was held unchanged at JPY 60-70T. The moves today was seen by the markets as a sign that BoJ is open to additional easing. Yen tumbled sharply across the board. In particular, the EUR/JPY took out 140.49 resistance which suggests near term reversal. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY also breaches 102.70 resistance which indicates rebound from 100.75 low.
In China, the PBoC conducted CNY 48b of 14-day repo, the first time that the central bank conducted a similar operation since June 6 2013. The move was in response to the current excessive liquidity condition with the benchmark 7-day repo dropping below the 4% yesterday for the first time in 3 months. Moreover, the move was hawkish as it indicated the PBoC's determination to tighten monetary policy though liquidity tools
The Aussie rose mildly after the RBA reiterated in the February meeting minutes that, "if the economy evolved broadly as expected, the most prudent course would likely be a period of stability in interest rates." The central bank noted that "noise" in inflation "presented something of a puzzle in interpreting the mix of activity and price data." Labour market remained weak as it lagged economic growth and that weighed down on consumption growth. But rise in equity prices "raised the possibility that consumption growth could outpace that of income in the period ahead." Regarding Aussie's rate, RBA said that "if sustained, a lower exchange rate would be expansionary for economic activity and assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy."
In the Eurozone, the ECB policymakers sounded more dovish. Nowotny did not rule out further rate cut despite better than expected GDP growth. According to him, "as long as we don't have inflation rates above 2% for a longer period of time, we may keep interest rates at the present level or lower". The ECB would publish its economic outlook on March 6. Nowotny suggested that if inflation is estimated to remain below 2% in 2016, this would be "an argument to do something to get closer to the stability goal we defined".
In the UK, BOE's Mile's reiterated that there's no case for a rate hike for the time being. He also noted that a rate hike would be a last tool to curb the soaring housing prices. Mile warned that while the property price is not overheating, investors should be aware interest rates will not stay at record low levels for many more years. The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) should be responsible for addressing the stability threats from the housing market. Only when the FPC's tools were not able to prevent overheating in the housing market, the BoE "would then turn to the blunter instrument of using Bank Rate".
Looking ahead, the UK inflation data will be a major focus in European session. The CPI is expected to be unchanged at 2.0% yoy while core CPI is expected to rise to 1.9% yoy in January. PPI will also be released. Sterling skyrocketed last week since the BoE inflation report hinted at the possibility of rate hike in Q2 2015. The BoE forecasts inflation would ease to as low as 1.7% in Q2 2015 before gradually accelerating to 1.9% in 2016. Any upside surprise today would reinforce the rate speculations and will the pound a lift. In particular, note that EUR/GBP is so far holding on to 0.8164 key support level so far. But, another rally might likely push it through this key support level and could turn medium term outlook bearish.
Other economic data to be released include German ZEW economic sentiment which could show slight improvement in February. US will release empire state manufacturing index, TIC capital flow and NAHB housing market index. Canada will release international securities transactions.