The Japanese yen strengthens after a batch of mostly positive economic data. National CPI core rose 3.4% yoy in May, and Tokyo CPI core rose 2.8% yoy in June. Both were inline with expectation. Retail sales dropped -0.4% yoy in May, better than consensus of -1.9% Yoy. Unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 3.5 % in May a 6 year low. Household spending was rather weak, dropping -8.0% yoy in May versus expectation of -1.9% yoy. There were talks that the weakness in spending could cast some doubts on BoJ's optimistic view on the economy. However, some economists were quick to point out that the details were indeed pointing to bottoming in spending. And, the economy would rebound in Q3 as the impact from the sales tax hike fades. USD/JPY took out 101.42 support today and is likely heading back to 100.65/82 key support level next.
New Zealand dollar stays strong and extends recent rally after release of trade data. Trade surplus came in wider than expected at NZD 285m in May. Exports rose 4.0% mom, 13% yoy to NZD 4.6b. Imports rose 9.6% mom, 7.0% yoy to NZD 4.3b. The annual trade surplus was at NZD 1.37b for the year ended May, at the highest level since November 2010. In particular, the two way trade with China exceeded NZD 20b, ahead of the target time of 2015. Prime minister Key said there were "escalating demand from China" and "the growth is showing no signs of slowing". The two countries are now targeting NZD 30b in two way trade by 2020. NZD/USD took out May's high of 0.8778 and is heading to record high of 0.8842.
In US, St Louis Fed's Bullard, a voting member in 2016, indicated that the US economy should be able to tolerate "at least a little bit of the central bank getting back to a more normal stance". Though he noted that the FOMC has NOT "internalized how close we are to our ultimate goals", he expected the first rate hike will come at the end of 1Q15. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed's Lacker, a voter next year, argued that inflation over the past few months has been firming and not all of the recent increase in inflation was noise. According to him, "even if growth remains relatively subdued as it has been over the past 5 years, in the 2% to 2.5% range"... the economy "can reach a situation in which real rates need to rise just to equilibrate the balance between pressure on current resources and pressure on future resources".
Elsewhere, Swiss KOF leading indicator rose to 100.4 in June. UK Gfk consumer sentiment rose to 1 in June. UK will release Q1 GDP final reading. Eurozone will release confidence indicators. Germany will release CPI. In US session, Canada will release IPPI and RMPI while US will release final reading of U of Michigan sentiment.