Much volatility was seen in the Japanese yen overnight as initial strength was countered by return of risk appetite. The Dow and S&P 500 both closed higher and lifted yen crosses for recoveries. However, renewed risk aversion in Asian session triggered another selloff in yen crosses again. Technically, the EUR/JPY has already took out 139.21 minor support yesterday. The USD/JPY also took out 101.66 minor support today which added more evidence to yen strength. Focus will now also be on 169.11 minor support in GBP/JPY today and break will further affirm the bullish case in yen. Data released in Japan saw national CPI core unchanged at 1.3% yoy in January while Tokyo CPI core rose to 0.9% yoy in February. Household spending rose 1.2% yoy in January, unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, industrial production rose 4.0% mom, retail sales rose 4.4% yoy, housing starts rose 12.3% yoy. PMI manufacturing dropped slightly to 55.5 in February.
Also, we'd like to point out again that another factor that would drag down the USD/JPY and other yen crosses is the sharp decline in US treasury yields. 30 year yield dropped sharply for another day to 3.596%, comparing to last week's high of 3.744%. 10 year yield also dropped to 2.642%, comparing to last week's high of 2.781%. As noted before, recent developments suggests that recovery in both TYX and TNX has completed after rejection from 55 days EMA. We'd expect both to retest recent low of 3.539% and 2.579% respectively in near term. And such development will likely push the USD/JPY lower towards 100 psychological level.
Yesterday, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen did not appear very concerned about the weakness in the recent dataflow. In her testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, she noted that "unseasonably cold weather has played some role" in the softness of the dataflow. What the central bank would do and would be doing in the weeks ahead is to "try to get a firmer handle on exactly how much of that set of soft data can be explained by weather and what portion, if any, is due to softer outlook". These comments suggested that the Fed, at the current stage, would not alter its tapering schedule.
Looking ahead, German retail sales, Swiss KOF leading indicator, Eurozone CPI and unemployment will be released in European session today. Canada will release GDP. US will release GDP revision, Chicago PMI, U of Michigan consumer sentiment and pending home sales.