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Yen At 2-Month Highs In Wake Of Disappointing BOJ, Sluggish US GDP

Published 04/30/2012, 06:57 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
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MAR
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Economic Data

(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 3.4% V 3.2%E

(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: -9.4% V +3.0% PRIOR (multi-year low)

(AU) AUSTRALIA APR TD SECURITIES INFLATION M/M: 0.3% V 0.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.8% PRIOR

(NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAR BUILDING PERMITS M/M: 19.8% V 6.0%E

(NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR NBNZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 36.1 V 38.8 PRIOR; BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 35.8 V 33.8 PRIOR (8-month high)

(NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAR TRADE BALANCE (NZ$) 134M V 417ME

(KR) SOUTH KOREA MAR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -3.1% V +0.2%E; Y/Y: 0.2% V 2.2%E

(KR) SOUTH KOREA MAY BUSINESS SURVEY MANUFACTURING: 90 V 85 PRIOR; NON MANUFACTURING: 85 V 82 PRIOR

(SI) SINGAPORE Q1 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PRELIM: 2.1% V 2.0%E

(SI) SINGAPORE MAR BANK LOANS & ADVANCES Y/Y: 26.0% V 27.6% PRIOR

(SI) SINGAPORE MAR CREDIT CARD BAD DEBTS (S$): 17.7M V 16.5M PRIOR; CREDIT CARD BILLINGS: 3.2B V 2.9B PRIOR

(SI) SINGAPORE MAR M1 MONEY SUPPLY: 10.2% V 11.5% PRIOR; M2: 9.7% V 9.5% PRIOR

(UK) UK APR HOMETRACK HOUSING SURVEY: M/M: 0.1% V 0.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: -0.9% V -1.0% PRIOR

Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)

Nikkei225 closed

S&P/ASX +0.7%

Kospi +0.2%

Shanghai Composite closed

Hang Seng +1.2%

Jun S&P Futures +0.1% at 1,400

June gold flat at $1,664/oz

June Crude -0.1% at $104.81

Overview/Top Headlines

Japanese yen is the standout in an otherwise holiday-subdued trading session in Asia, as investors continue to parse the mixed Bank of Japan policy decision and a weaker than expected US Q1 GDP. Analysts at SocGen in particular were unimpressed, noting the BOJ action "is not sufficient to recover long-lost credibility as deflation fighter."

USD/JPY sliced through the key technical support of ¥80.30 - highs from August intervention and recent support. JPY was also firmer on the crosses, as EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY fell about 40 pips from session highs to ¥106.05 and ¥83.70 respective lows. Canadian dollar is also in focus following BOC Governor Carney reiterating his support to adjust policy to achieve 2% inflation target despite the high level of household debt. USD/CAD fell about 20 pips at the open and sitting just above the 0.98 support, a 7-month low.

In China, one of the incoming PBoC advisors, Song Guoqing, forecasted 2012 CPI around 2.8% (official target 4%) and GDP around 8.4% (official target 7.5%). State economist Fan Jianping was also more upbeat on growth and confident China would contain inflation, targeting 2012 GDP at 8.5% and CPI at 3.5%. Shanghai Composite is closed for trade until Wednesday, however China will still release its April manufacturing PMI at 21:30ET on Monday.

Moody's was more sanguine on Spain than S&P last week, noting the recent fiscal measures are positive for its sovereign rating. Spanish workers' unions continued to protest austerity however, as tens of thousands said to have marched in Madrid and Andalusia.

Moody's also looked at the Netherlands, stating the government resignation creates political uncertainty but also acknowledging that the subsequent budget agreement by lawmakers was a credit-positive. The euro fell as low as $1.3230 before recovering above $1.3250 late in the day.

Speakers/Geopolitical/In The Press

(NZ) New Zealand Treasury: 2012 growth will be moderate; Inflation pressures will be subdued in H1.

(AU) Australia Treasurer Swan: Economy returning to trend growth; Budget to see substantial savings. - Financial Press

(FR) Weekend FT report suggesting France presidential front-runner Hollande is pledging to delay ratifying European fiscal compact treaty without negotiations to add growth measures.

(FR) According to the latest polls, Socialist front-runner Hollande is still expected to defeat incumbent Sarkozy in next Sunday's presidential runoff by 54-46% margin. - Financial Press

Equities

TM: May top its FY11/12 op profit forecast of ¥270B with ¥350B (¥340Be) result. - Nikkei News

7202.JP: GM holding talks to take 10% investment in Isuzu for distribution of commercial vehicles in Asia. - Nikkei News

005930.KR: According to Strategy Analytics, Samsung Electronics topped Nokia and Apple as the top global seller of handsets and smartphones in Q1. - Korean Press

NAB.AU: Reports H1 Net A$2.1B v A$2.4B y/y; Will simplify UK model with restructuring, laying off about 1,400 staff.

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