Current Dynamics
The XAU/USD pair is consolidating around the 2385.00 mark in the morning, awaiting new impulses. Last week, the quotes registered a rapid growth, reaching local highs since May 22, after the release of the June report on the US labor market.
Investors noted the revision of the number of non-farm jobs created in May, which was adjusted from 272,000 to 218,000, while in June the number fell to 206,000, surpassing the forecast of 190,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%, and hidden unemployment remained stable at 7.4%. The average hourly wage slowed from 4.1% to 3.9% on an annual basis and from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Overall, these data increased expectations of a monetary policy easing by the end of 2024, with the market anticipating the first moves from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.
The XAU/USD quotes were also influenced by the results of the parliamentary elections in the European Union. In the United Kingdom, the Labour Party achieved a historic victory, which could accelerate economic reforms aimed at reducing budget expenditures. In France, the "New Popular Front" party won 182 seats in the National Assembly, while Marine Le Pen's "National Rally" took third place with 143 seats. President Emmanuel Macron's coalition came in second with 168 mandates.
In the gold futures market, an upward trend is observed. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions in gold increased from 243.1 thousand to 246.2 thousand last week. The balance of "bulls" in positions secured by real money was 197,885 thousand against 13,175 thousand for "bears". Last week, buyers closed 3,007 thousand trades while sellers increased by 1,816 thousand, indicating a stable trend.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands show moderate growth with the price range widening. The MACD is rising and maintains a firm buy signal. The Stochastic, near the maximum levels, stabilizes horizontally, suggesting a risk of overvaluation in the short term.
Resistance: 2387.63, 2400.00, 2415.00, 2431.44.
Support: 2378.39, 2364.04, 2354.65, 2339.70.
Trading Scenarios
Short Positions: Open after a firm break below the 2378.39 level, with a target of 2339.70 and a Stop Loss at 2400.00. Timeframe: 2-3 days.
Long Positions: If there is a rebound from the 2378.39 level as support and a break above the 2400.00 level, open new positions with a target of 2431.44 and a Stop Loss at 2378.39.
This analysis combines recent market data with trading strategies based on technical levels and indicators, offering a clear and practical view for informed decision-making.