WTI Crude Oil May Witness Range Bound Trading Next Few Weeks

Crude: Just watching the RSI and I think it’s interesting that we never really saw the market overbought. As we rallied past 10000 earlier, the highest we saw was in the 60’s. We think this may be a sign that the market is balancing out. We may be preparing for more range trade into the next few weeks with support to 9320, 9234 and 9118. The upside seems more plausible, but limited to resistance at 9570, 9655 and 9779. The front spread gets ready for Index roll. This month should be relatively thin with most Index trade rebalanced ahead of the curve. We’re looking for support to –20, -28. Flat price will look to pick up and trade higher to the close.

Gasoline
We’ve moving ahead to RBG4. RB trying to hold after the major fail. We’re looking to hold support to 26600, 26442 and 26265. The upside will revert back to resistance 26751, 26949 and 27134. The front spread has dropped and looks to support at –150, -162 and –178. Resistance at -135, -118, -90. The RBCL catches resistance at 1800, 1881. The support leans back on 1728, 1693.

Trends are only for the affected
Nothing doing here, but trying to find a direction has been a trying time. We see nothing new on the 10min chart. Yesterday’s slip again found support to the 9320 area. Now we see if that floor can hold the range with a ceiling up to 9450. The 60min chart holds a downtrend here and it’s going to be tricky. We’re making an artist’s call here and looking for the support line to 9200 and channel resistance at 9450. If we break higher, reversal here is in the 9575 area.

Fundy you should mention
For what it’s worth, this is shaping up to be a pretty quiet week if you’re a commodity focused fund. As we explained in the Newsletter, we’re thinking that the macro money is busy laying up oil vs. USD via QE tapering. For those thinking about the future of US demand, then we’re thinking that money comes back in play once we get the Unemployment numbers out of the way on Friday. There’s some speculation that the cutting of employment benefits is going to weigh on demand, but in our minds, it’s forcing those peo-ple back to the workforce and that’s not a bad thing. International Trade (-$39.9B) at 8:30am EST

Sorry, I am just physically attracted
Worth noting the big brains in NY, specifically Senator Schumer (D), “railing” against crude cars traveling through NY. Would be nice if someone actually told him that if there’s one more way that NY can be-come even more expensive, he’s on to it. Seems that he’s looking to put a ban on DOT-111 rail cars that travel through NY. Not that the alternative is foreign imports or that the wait on pipeline would take some time, the costs to the East Coast consumer could see a big bump up. This may turn out to be the RINs fiasco of 2014 if we see shale on rail halted while the producers figure out a good way to get crude from North Dakota over.

Techies, some Trekkies

200 Day MA 9904

100 Day MA 10032

13 Day MA 9756

8 Day MA 9659

14 Day RSI 36.71

Spread now; Roll later

Everything is cheap

Key support: -26, -32, -39

Key Rests: -10, +02, +13