The main event in Sweden is the Riksbank's last monetary policy meeting of the year and the release of a new Monetary Update. The Riksbank is under pressure 'to do something'. The first line of defence is likely to be signalling a 'delayed hikes/lowered end point' repo forecast.
We still look for a flatter SGB and SEK swap 5/10 curve and last week recommended a box trade vs Norway.
We take a closer look at the forecasts from the Swedish DMO.
In Norway, we should begin to see an effect on registered unemployment from big redundancies in September and we expect it to climb to 2.7% in December. We also expect our preferred jobless measure, gross unemployment, which includes those on job creation schemes, to increase by 600 people m/m.
Norges Bank slashed its policy rate by 25bp last week. Given the focus on oil prices, we expect the market to price at least two more rate cuts in 2015 and see further downside for NOK rates and further upside for EUR/NOK, especially for the rest of December, as Norges Bank is no longer active in the market and as liquidity is poor.
In Denmark, the Association of Danish Mortgage Banks will be publishing housing market statistics for Q3.
EUR/DKK has returned to the "intervention zone" and the Danish DMO might be publishing its funding plan for 2015 this week.
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