Will Pioneer Natural's (PXD) Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates?

We expect Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSE:PXD) to beat expectations when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2017 results on Feb 6 after the closing bell.

Last quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 60%. We note that Pioneer Natural Resourceshas outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the preceding four quarters with an average positive surprise of 67.6%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Pioneer Natural is likely to beat earnings because it has the right combination of two key ingredients.

Positive Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, stands at +4.07%. This is very meaningful and a leading indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise.You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Pioneer Natural sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), which, when combined with +4.07% ESP, makes us confident about an earnings beat.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Note that stocks with a Zacks Ranks #1, 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings. The Sell-rated stocks (#4 and 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.

What is Driving the Better-Than-Expected Earnings?

Irving, TX- based Pioneer Natural Resources is anindependent oil and gas exploration and production company.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average sale price of natural gas is $2.64 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), higher than last quarter’s $2.58 per Mcf and the year-ago quarter’s $2.59 per Mcf. Moreover, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for natural gas production for the fourth quarter is 377 million cubic feet per day (Mmcfd), higher than 340 Mmcfd reported in the last quarter and 328 Mmcfd in the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average sales price of natural gas liquids in the fourth quarter is $22.15 per barrel, higher than last quarter’s reported price of $18.96 per barrel and $16.76 per barrel in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for production is 60 thousand barrels per day (MBD), marking an increase from third-quarter production of 57 MBD and the year-ago quarter’s production of 44.26 MBD.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average crude oil sales price is pegged at $51 per barrel, higher than third quarter’s $45.35 per barrel and the year-ago quarter’s price of $46.13. Moreover, the consensus estimate for fourth-quarter crude oil per day production is pegged at 176 MBD, higher than previous quarter’s 162 MBD and the year-ago quarter’s 143 MBD.

We expect higher average realized prices for all commodities and production to drive revenues. The addition of rigs in Spraberry/Wolfcamp plays is expected to ramp up production. Moreover, the completion of the 20 wells in Eagle Ford Shale this year, of which nine new drills were placed in the fourth quarter, will add to the output.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies that you may consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Houston, TX -based Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE:COG) is an independent energy company. Its Earnings ESP is +4.98% and the stock sports a Zacks Rank #1.

Keane Group (NYSE:FRAC) is a Houston, TX-based oil field service provider. Its Earnings ESP is +5.62% and it carries a Zacks Rank #1.

Oklahoma City, OK-based Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.42% and it sports a Zacks Rank #1.

Wall Street’s Next Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)

Zacks EVP Kevin Matras believes this familiar stock has only just begun its climb to become one of the greatest investments of all time. It’s a once-in-a-generation opportunity to invest in pure genius.

Click for details >>