Base Metal futures have shown a bounce back from the bottom, after sliding continuously since April 19th, 2018. This slide coincided with the advent of the tariff trade war between the U.S. and China with special emphasis on Iranian sanctions, perhaps; in hopes for any successful resolution to resolve tariff trade war. Some of the base metals started to fall in advance. Perhaps, they felt the potential impact of the tariff trade war on their supply and demand ratios in March – April 2018.
On analysis of the movements of some base metal futures, in different time frames, I’ve found that some of the base metal futures worked like a canary a coal mine during the last few trading session of the year 2018. I find them respecting hourly uptrend which looks evident enough to have an eye over their directional move during the month of January 2019. Finally, I find that these canaries will clearly define the absence of economic methane in the global trading atmosphere.
Copper looks a little exhausted, but full of renewed energy after resting at 200 DMA. No doubt, base metals have come under pressure due to noise about global economic growth due to enhanced pressures on profit margins amid escalating tariff trade war, but increasing efforts to resolve this from the U.S. and China looks to provide new dimensions to global economy, which will again push the demand side of base metals in 2019.
On analysis of the movements Lead Futures, in different time frames, I find that the lead futures finally look decisive before moving upward during the upcoming weeks. Let’s have a look at the movements of Copper futures in the following charts:
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