Market movers ahead
The focus remains on Greece ahead of the euro group meeting on Monday. We continue to see the summer crunch time as the real deadline.
We forecast GDP growth in the euro area of 0.5% q/q in Q1.
We look for an increase in core retail sales in the US. A stronger pace of private consumption is key to our outlook for US growth this year.
There are unlikely to be any surprises at the upcoming MPC meeting in the UK, but look out for the new Inflation Report and minutes from the meeting.
We expect Chinese industrial production still to suggest GDP growth below 7% y/y.
We expect Swedish inflation to come in a little above the Riksbank's forecast, but this is unlikely to be sufficient to change monetary policy. Minutes from the latest Riksbank meeting are also due for release.
We expect that GDP growth in Norway slowed to 0.3% q/q in Q1 mainly due to the lower oil price, which has become visible in the economy.
Global macro and market themes
Very fierce bond sell-off - partly due to poor liquidity.
We expect higher volatility in stocks but retain a positive stance.
US data rebounding - on track for Fed hike in September.
Euro data getting more mixed.
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