There remains a high level of uncertainty around tax reform but the USD picture remains guardedly optimistic based on the fact that something is better than nothing when it comes to lower taxes.
As for today, the greenback remains in limbo, more or less susceptible to positioning nuances as dealers attempt to figure out this tangled mess of confusion. But on a net basis, the song remains the same, and from a forward-looking interest rate differential perspective, the USD should prevail on this guardedly optimistic presumption despite a tentative bid to UST 10Y yields
Meanwhile and perhaps Washington’s worst kept secret, Jerome Powell will steer the Fed mandate, suggesting a status quo guidance from the FOMC. However it’s far too early to rule out a catch which could veer policy. Frankly, after four years of a dovish Fed narrative, it’s unlikely the new Fed Chair will be looking to rock the boat too aggressively and will likely remain as data dependent as Dr. Yellen, but let’s see where this morning’s very animated discussion about the next Vice Chair takes us. Overall, despite the wealth of headline risk, US markets have been relatively subdued overnight.
Tariff time for the Loonie
The US Commerce Department is adamant that Canadian lumber producers gained mostly from selling to the US below fair value and received unfair subsidies that hurt US producers. Therefore, it looks to announce a tariff. The rate: 21%. The softwood lumber kerfuffle has been the bain of the loonie for decades, so there is no reason to suspect otherwise this time around. I suspect the CAD will continue to roll over given the toxic combination of dovish BOC and trade sanctions.
The British Pound
Carney carnage has left sterling bulls in a world of hurt this morning as a one-and-done deal looks more likely for the course of BOE policy.
Japanese Yen
USD/JPY is trading very well bid while suggesting the correlation to US fixed income is wobbling, sending a convincing signal that real money demand remains high.
Australian Dollar
The market was expecting a modest recovery in retail sales but with the less than convincing on the dot headline print this morning the AUD bears are back en masse.
EM Asia
Asian currencies should still trade with a bullish bounce given the strong global equity market and stability of renminbi. But frankly, retail flows remain extremely muted despite KRW’s outperformance of late.
The PHP has been trading well, wholly sidestepping what was perceived to be a toxic cocktail around the Fed Chair and tax reform narrative given the bullish USD persuasion of these storylines. Investors continue to appreciate the undervalued equity market pockets on the Philippines exchange suggesting a modicum of relief for the Peso is in store.
The MYR is a slight underperformer in the regions due to seasonality concerns as traders remain defensive despite a robust and a positively evolving global growth storyline.