What Will Italy Do on Thursday?

The Dow (NYSEARCA:DIA), S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) and the NASDAQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) all dropped over 1% today as Italy and Europe continue to scare global investors.

It does not appear that Europe will give us any breathing room coming into the new year, as investors and politicians alike are worried about the alleged 7% yield on the long-term Italian Bond auction scheduled for tomorrow. Again we are met with the issue of too much debt, not enough political action, and a wobbling EU economy.  I ask the question today: what will Italy do tomorrow?

In other news, Oil (NYSEARCA:USO) dropped below $100 per barrel today as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Nations promised to provide more oil (NYSEARCA:USO) to the Western world if indeed Iran’s Navy (tries to) shut down the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is responsible for one third of the world’s oil (NYSEARCA:USO) tanker traffic, and although Iran does not appreciate the possible new sanctions against it, I have a hard time believing that the US Navy’s 5th fleet will allow Iran to disrupt any oil trade.  So long as all out war does not break out, the lines in the sand are drawn and oil (NYSEARCA:USO) prices will likely remain low coming into the new year.

At home the “economic recovery” is slowly but surely moving forward, as retail spending has increased 4.5% from last year, and yesterday’s manufacturing index report showed improvement.  However, Morgan Stanly announced today that it will be cutting 580 jobs in New York for 2012; Morgan Stanly’s actions are representative of the fact that any US economic recovery signs are still preliminary and young, at best.

Bottom Line: Europe still has to “fix” any of its long term issues on debt, Santa has flown north (or south) today, global markets hinge on what Italy will do tomorrow and we are all hopeful for a new and better 2012.

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