I had a great and informative interview today with Dale Pinkert of Forex Analytics.
We discussed many macro themes.
- The hotter-than-expected CPI number
- The trouble in the bond market
- The dollar most likely topping out
- The reasons to remain bullish in gold
- The consumer and why tracking the ETF XRT matters
- Sugar trying to break out
- Biotech and the vanity trade
- The broadening of the market with the need for MAG7 to hang in there
- The rest of the Economic Modern Family-leaders and laggards
Dale and I also discussed the silver to gold ratio. 
To restate the trifecta of inflation indicators I like to use
- The weakening of the US Dollar
- Silver begins to outperform gold
- Sugar busts out and goes parabolic.
Now while none of these indicators have flashed just yet, both Dale and I agree the silver-to-gold ratio is stretched, at resistance, and could easily reverse.
In 2020 as COVID hit, the ratio spiked hugely in gold’s favor.
In 2021 on the back of COVID and much higher inflation, the ratio dropped to 65 in favor of silver.
Since 2023, the ratio has peaked several times at 90.
Again, all in favor of gold over silver.
Should the ratio fall beneath roughly 80, and silver does indeed outperform gold, that does not mean gold will fall.
However, it will mean that inflation is picking up, and then the whole picture will change as price dictates narrative.
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
- S&P 500 (SPY) 600 support
- Russell 2000 (IWM) Now has to clear 225
- Dow (DIA) 439 support 452 now the resistance to clear
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 520 the 50-DMA support
- Regional banks (KRE) 64 back to resistance
- Semiconductors (SMH) 245 support
- Transportation (IYT) 71.40 support
- Biotechnology (IBB) 130 support and 136 resistance
- Retail (XRT) 77 area critical support
- iShares 20+ Treasury Bonds (TLT) Back below 88 now resistance