Starting with EUR/USD, we have confirmed alternation – but only by the skin of its teeth. I can’t rule out a second zigzag higher but neither can I confidently say it will just continue to move lower. I suspect it will, but we have to still be on our guard. USD/JPY is still creeping higher but still within the boundaries – only the alternative structure could see a move higher – maybe above 111.79. However, if it does, then I suspect we’ll probably see a bearish divergence to push it back down.
I’d like to see USD/CHF move higher to reach the (navy) Wave iii and onwards. The only risk is an initial pullback but then we’ll see the (navy) Wave iii onwards. Once the Wave v has been established it will form the (blue) Wave a/iii…
GBP/USD did see a 5-wave rally. We’re still in a duality here also. With the 5-wave rally, it could either be a Wave ii; or a Wave [a]. This can see a pullback higher for losses below the Wave [x] or it will hold above the Wave [x] and then see a new Wave [c] above 1.3382 to form a triple three.
Even AUD/USD is messing about. I was expecting an expanded flat but it is now rather complicated. There is the risk that the decline from 0.7133 was a Wave i and the pullback in Wave ii. If so, then we’re going to be looking for deeper losses in the Wave -a-. Otherwise, if we do see the expanded flat we can then look for losses.
EUR/JPY… I find this pair rather difficult. The crosses can be rather difficult to judge. We haven’t seen a bearish divergence and I’ve an idea that we may just see one more high before the reversal.