Overall markets have started to pick up which is great to see after a rather stale period, with participants starting to get back into the markets we could see the next major trend about to form (if it hasn't already with this breakout). Small push lower in risk pairs on Friday, this has created a few interesting price action signals for us to consider early next week (check out the week ahead post on Monday for more info).
Comments out of Merkel and Greek PM highlighted the commitment to Greece hitting its targets and keeping Greece in the eurozone, however, it looks like the ECB might not quite be ready with its yield cap scheme.
UK GDP came in as expected today with the year on year reading slightly better than expected.
Throughout the rest of the week we had stale minutes from the FOMC, the market priced in QE then thought better of it after comments from the Feds Bullard suggesting the US might be doing better since the meeting took place. It is always important to review your trades; all good traders (and in fact all successful people) always try and learn from what they have done.
- This week we continued our USD/NOK-USD/SEK shorts which have been playing out so well recently. On the USD/NOK as we get to some strong support we are starting to move stops in more aggressively but with 50% of the trade already booked at a large profit and the next 50% sat at an even larger profit this trade is looking very good.
- Failed entry signal on the AUD/USD; more recently we haven't had the best success with the Aussie ever since the large counter trend entry which paid off extremely well, that said the pair itself hasn't had many strong with trend pins, we will continue to watch for triple A set-ups
- Caught two quick trades in the form of a NZD/JPY short and a USD/CHF short. NZD/JPY played out to T1 our target on a small counter trend pin, the almost identical previous pin gave us confidence in this play. The USD/CHF we cut short for a T1, however, on reflection we could have trailed our stops better for at least T2 or even T3, alternative to this would have been to use this signal to play a EUR/USD long which would have played out better.
Drop lower then a push back to form a small pin today. Looks like the Bullish trend is still in tact for the time being. A test of resistance and a nice entry signal would put us long. Breaking resistance would most likely resume a Bearish trend.
GBP/USD
The pound has started to retrace from the counter trend pin we highlighted yesterday; it is currently getting close to a nice value area (blue box), if we see a rejection of the previous resistance now turned support level early next week that will put is long this pair.
AUD/USD
Dropped further today putting in a small test of a similar resistance level to the failed pin, market isn't keen on dropping lower but hasn't got enough buying power to really push higher at the moment. Given the failed pin I suspect we could drop lower to a stronger support level around 1.0335. Currently we are still Bullish this pair.
USD/JPY
Pushed back to test the high of the previous range today, still need to see a breakout and a good entry signal to put us long especially after the failed breakout this week.
USD/SEK
Stabilised from the push lower. We have now moved our stops to lock in profit.
USD/NOK
Continued its run, dropping lower again and forming another pin bar, this pair has been textbook recently and we can now move stops lower again to lock in more profit.
NZD/JPY
NZD/JPY played out to T1 our target on a small counter trend pin
USD/CHF
USD/CHF pushed higher off of our T3 and previous support mark today