A roller coaster ride for stocks, alongside oil prices falling to new lows. JPY pressed through last year’s lows, CAD hit close to 1.4700. Focus now on March ECB meeting as council to reconsider measures.
It was a week of 2 halves, beginning with a quiet Monday session in the absence of US markets (MLK day). However, Tuesday proved negative risk sentiment was still very much in the air, and even though China was out of the limelight (for now), further losses in equities and oil sent the related FX pairs heading south. USD/JPY eventually took out the flash crash lows from August last year, dipping under 116.00 before Japan officials informed the market they were ‘watching closely’. Intervention fears have leant a bid tone since, testing through 118.00 and later previous 118.50 cap. The hit on CAD took us to 10/11 ticks shy of 1.4700, but a 5+ cent retracement seen since. Record lows for the RUB and MXN also. Déjà vu at the ECB as president Draghi put the March meeting into focus, much like last December, revealing policy measures will be reconsidered. About-turn the EUR, but spot losses were contained ahead of 1.0750. The GBP downturn continued to see cable take out 1.4100, while EUR/GBP peaked out just above .7750, but a healthy pullback seen in both pairs. Looking ahead, the FOMC is unlikely to provide much excitement, with services PMI the notable data release. German IFO is standout in Europe. UK Q4 GDP out in the UK, while overnight markets have the RBNZ meeting and Australian CPI.